#Polymarket预测市场 Seeing the surge in prediction markets, I have a few heartfelt words to share. Coinbase acquiring The Clearing Company, Crypto.com hiring quantitative traders, Kalshi integrating with BSC—on the surface, it looks like a hot track, but I smell a familiar scent behind these news.

Remember the DeFi Summer a few years ago? The same story: exchanges piling up their layouts, funding rounds increasing, and then? Most projects became tools for harvesting profits from retail investors. Prediction markets are likely to follow this path.

Now, there are a few points to be especially cautious about: First, sufficient liquidity does not mean low risk—on the contrary, it makes it easier for big players to sniper; second, the phrase "maximizing profits" is the most dangerous, indicating that institutions are already eyeing this market for profit; third, multi-chain deployment seems convenient but actually disperses your risk monitoring.

The key to surviving long on the chain is not to be dazzled by new concepts hype. Prediction markets themselves are fine, but when all the giants rush in, it often means the current phase's dividends have been almost fully divided up. Ordinary users entering? Most likely, they are just helping the whales take the chips. Not to say you should completely avoid it, but you need to understand what you're betting on and whether you can afford to lose your stake.