Gold towards $5000 in 2026.. Will the precious metal fulfill investors' dreams?

Gold Price Forecast Summary 2026:

HSBC Bank expects gold to reach $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2026 with an annual average of $4,600. Bank of America raises the forecast ceiling to $5,000 as a potential peak with an average of $4,400. Goldman Sachs adjusts its forecast to $4,900. J.P. Morgan targets $5,055 by mid-2026.

The most common range among analysts is between $4,800 and $5,000 as an upside cap, with an expected average between $4,200 and $4,800.

Why is gold heading upward?

1- Institutional demand shatters records

Data from the World Gold Council estimates that total demand in Q2 2025 reached 1,249 tons, up 3% year-over-year, while value surged to $132 billion, up 45%.

Gold ETFs (ETFs) recorded massive inflows that raised assets under management to $472 billion, with holdings of 3,838 tons, a 6% increase from the previous quarter, approaching the all-time peak of 3,929 tons.

North America led demand with 345.7 tons, followed by Europe with 148.4 tons, then Asia with 117.8 tons.

Retail investors increased their exposure: Bloomberg data shows that 28% of new investors in developed markets added gold to their portfolios for the first time last year, maintaining their positions even during correction periods, supporting price stability.

2- Central banks keep buying

Central banks added 244 tons in Q1 2025 alone, a 24% increase over the five-year quarterly average.

44% of global central banks now manage gold reserves compared to 37% in 2024, reflecting a strategic shift toward diversification away from the dollar.

China alone added more than 65 tons, continuing its expansion for the twenty-second consecutive month. Turkey increased its reserves above 600 tons.

Forecast: Central bank purchases will remain the biggest driver of demand through the end of 2026, especially in emerging markets.

3- Supply shortages deepen the gap

Mine production reached 856 tons in Q1 2025, a slight increase of only 1%, which is not enough to bridge the gap between rising demand and limited supply.

Recycled gold decreased by 1% during the same period, as owners preferred to hold onto their pieces expecting continued price increases.

Mining costs surged: The global average cost reached $1,470 per ounce in mid-2025, the highest in a decade, limiting production expansion.

Supporting economic factors for upward movement

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates:

The rate was cut by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% range in October 2025, indicating more cuts ahead.

Markets price in another 25 basis point cut at the December 2025 meeting.

Forecast: The interest rate could fall to 3.4% by the end of 2026, reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold.

Weak dollar and declining yields:

The dollar index fell about 7.64% from its peak at the start of the year through November 2025.

U.S. 10-year bond yields declined from 4.6% in Q1 to 4.07% in mid-November.

This combination supported institutional demand for gold and boosted its attractiveness to foreign investors.

Global monetary policy leans toward easing:

The European Central Bank continued tightening to combat inflation, while the Bank of Japan maintained easing, creating a volatile environment that elevates gold’s role as a safe haven.

Sovereign debt and inflation:

Global public debt exceeds 100% of GDP according to the IMF.

42% of major hedge funds increased their gold holdings during Q3 2025 as protection against debt risks.

Geopolitical tensions ignite buying:

Geopolitical uncertainty in 2025 increased demand by 7% annually, especially amid trade conflicts and tensions in the Middle East.

When tensions around Taiwan escalated, prices jumped above $3,400 in July, then exceeded $4,300 in mid-October 2025.

Gold price outlook in the Middle East

Egypt: CoinCodex forecasts suggest the price could reach around 522,580 EGP per ounce, a rise of 158.46% compared to current prices.

Saudi Arabia: If gold hits $5,000 per ounce, it could be valued at 18,750 to 19,000 SAR (at an exchange rate of 3.75-3.80 SAR per USD).

UAE: The same scenario could translate to 18,375 to 19,000 AED per ounce.

Technical analysis: Where is gold headed?

Current situation (November 21, 2025):

Gold closed at $4,065.01 per ounce, after touching a peak of $4,381.44 on October 20.

Support and resistance:

Main support level: $4,000 – a break below could target $3,800 (50% Fibonacci retracement).

Resistance lines:

• $4,200 (first resistance)
• $4,400
• $4,680

Momentum indicators:

RSI at 50: The market is in a neutral zone, showing no overbought or oversold conditions, indicating a consolidation area before a new move.

MACD: The signal line above zero confirms the continuation of the uptrend.

Technical outlook: Gold is trading in a sideways upward-sloping range between $4,000 and $4,220, with a positive outlook as long as it remains above the main trendline.

Warnings of correction

HSBC anticipates a possible correction:

Gold could dip toward $4,200 in the second half of 2026 if investors take profits.

However, a drop below $3,800 is unlikely unless a major economic shock occurs.

Goldman Sachs warned: Sustained prices above $4,800 could pose a “price credibility test” amid weak industrial demand.

But J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank analysts see: Gold has entered a new price zone that is difficult to break downward due to the strategic shift in investor perception of it as a long-term asset.

Summary: Is $5,000 inevitable?

Gold price forecasts for 2026 depend on a delicate balance of various factors:

✓ If real yields remain low and the dollar stays weak: gold is likely to hit record highs near $5,000.

✓ If inflation declines and market confidence returns: gold may stabilize for a long period below target levels.

✓ The biggest bet: Continued easing monetary policies and ongoing central bank purchases are the primary guarantees for rising gold prices.

Regardless of the scenario, the precious metal will remain a safe haven for investors in an increasingly risky and uncertain global economy.