Is gold a safe investment in 2025? Gold price forecasts and available opportunities

Don’t make your expectations wrong if you’re watching gold prices; this precious metal hasn’t performed so strongly in years. In 2025, we’ve seen a dramatic jump of more than 50% since the beginning of the year, with the price reaching a historic peak of $4,381 per ounce in mid-October, surpassing all previous forecasts from major financial institutions.

This rise didn’t come out of nowhere. Behind it are deep movements in global markets: persistent weakness in the US dollar, escalating geopolitical tensions, and expectations of interest rate cuts by central banks. All these factors have combined to turn gold into a safe haven that investors turn to during times of turmoil.

What happened to gold prices during 2024?

Before looking to the future, it’s essential to understand recent history. In 2024, gold started the year with a clear rise, reaching around $2,251 per ounce in the first quarter, supported by heavy buying from central banks, especially in Asia.

Then it continued its ascent:

• Q2: reached $2,450 with expectations of interest rate cuts
• Q3: rose to $2,672 supported by Asian central banks
• Q4: experienced fluctuations but stabilized above $2,660 by year’s end

Gold journey in 2025: from $2,798 to $4,381

This year proved that gold remains “the king of investments” during crises. Look at this trajectory:

Breaking the $4,000 level happened for the first time on October 8, and a few days later, we reached the historic peak of $4,381. Now, gold is stable near $4,000 in November amid sensitive geopolitical developments.

What do experts say about gold price forecasts for 2025-2026?

Major financial institutions agree on an optimistic outlook, but with different details:

J.P. Morgan: average $5,000 by 2026, with $4,900 in Q4 2026

Goldman Sachs: forecast $4,000 mid-2026, with an optimistic scenario reaching $4,900 by year’s end

Morgan Stanley: $4,500 by mid-2026 supported by strong physical demand

Standard Chartered: $4,300 by end of 2025, and $4,500 within 12 months

Bank of America: $4,000 by Q3 2026

HSBC: forecasts of $5,000 by 2026

ANZ: $4,400 by end of 2025, and $4,600 by mid-2026

An important note: this variation in numbers reflects the fact that gold forecasts remain subject to unpredictable factors and central bank decisions.

Factors driving gold prices higher

1. Persistent inflation

Although inflation decreased to around 3% in September 2025 year-over-year, it remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target. This makes gold a key tool for preserving purchasing power. In 2021 and 2022, when inflation hit multi-decade highs, gold reached about $1,900.

2. Weak US dollar

The relationship is inverse and simple: a weak dollar = stronger gold. When the US launched massive stimulus packages in 2020 to combat COVID-19, the dollar declined and gold rose to $2,075 per ounce in August 2020.

3. Central bank policies

Central banks hold a large portion of global gold, and their buying activities drive the market. In recent years, emerging markets have significantly increased their purchases, boosting demand.

4. Geopolitical tensions

Global crises and conflicts turn gold into an immediate safe haven. During the COVID-19 pandemic, when markets collapsed, investors flocked to gold, which exceeded $2,000 for the first time in history.

5. Demand from investment funds

Since the emergence of gold ETFs(, individuals and institutions can easily access the market. In 2020, holdings of the SPDR Gold Shares fund increased by over 700 tons, pushing prices to new highs.

) 6. Demand from jewelry and industry sectors India and China consume large quantities of gold, especially during wedding seasons and celebrations. Additionally, smartphones and medical equipment require increasing amounts of gold.

How to build an investment strategy in gold?

Step 1: Understand the fundamentals

Before any decision, study the factors influencing gold prices: inflation, interest rates, central bank policies. Follow gold price forecasts from reliable sources to develop a broader view.

Step 2: Set your goals

Why do you want to invest? To preserve your savings from inflation? To diversify your portfolio? For retirement? Having clear goals prevents emotional decisions.

Step 3: Assess your risk tolerance

Although gold is a safe haven, its prices can experience short-term volatility. Determine the duration you plan to hold gold ###short-term or long-term(, and understand how much decline you can tolerate.

) Step 4: Monitor and don’t leave your savings at the mercy of inflation Keeping money in savings accounts may erode its value over time. Gold has historically proven to be an effective means of preserving purchasing power.

Step 5: Manage your portfolio wisely

Continuously monitor gold prices, use specialized apps to track movements, and analyze performance periodically to assess your strategy’s effectiveness.

Step 6: Practice discipline

Volatility may tempt you to buy or sell emotionally. Successful investing requires patience and discipline; stick to your long-term plan.

Short-term vs. long-term investment

Short-term gold

Mechanism: Exploits daily or weekly price fluctuations through futures contracts or ETFs.

Advantages:

• Potential for quick profits from strong volatility
• A tool for short-term risk hedging
• High flexibility in entry and exit

Risks:

• Price volatility makes timing difficult
• Requires daily monitoring and technical analysis
• Additional trading costs

Long-term gold

Mechanism: Buying physical gold or investing in gold-backed funds, holding for years.

Advantages:

• Safe haven during economic and political crises
• Preserves purchasing power against inflation
• Less volatile over the long term

Risks:

• Price may remain stable for extended periods
• Does not generate fixed income like dividends or interest
• Storage and insurance costs for physical gold

Risks that could change the course

Despite positive forecasts, scenarios may curb the rise:

1. Return of the US Federal Reserve to raising interest rates Any decision to increase rates will weaken gold’s appeal, as it does not yield income.

2. Improvement in geopolitical situations Official resolution of major conflicts may reduce demand for safe havens.

3. Mass investor flight A large exit from gold into other assets could push prices down rapidly.

Conclusion: Is gold the right investment for you?

Gold price forecasts for 2025-2026 indicate a range of $4,000 - $5,000 per ounce. This suggests room for further upward movement from current levels.

But success depends not only on forecasts. It relies on:

✓ Setting clear goals before investing ✓ Choosing the right instrument ###bullion, funds, contracts( ✓ Committing to a defined strategy ✓ Regularly monitoring your investment performance ✓ Patience and discipline

Gold is not a quick way to wealth, but an effective tool for wealth preservation and diversification. Invest wisely, not impulsively.