Gold in 2025 - When is the best time to invest? A detailed analysis from an investor's perspective

The global financial markets are currently filled with mixed signals, but assets considered “safe haven” continue to attract investor interest, especially after the unprecedented surge in gold prices to record highs in 2567. This article will help you decide when is the best time to buy gold in this quite challenging year.

Expert and Financial Institution Perspectives: Looking Good or Looking Sad?

Before diving into in-depth analysis, let’s see what market sentiment worldwide thinks.

Goldman Sachs has raised its gold price target, expecting that by the end of 2567, gold could reach $2,700 per ounce. Their team reasons that demand from foreign central banks remains strong, along with unresolved geopolitical risks.

J.P. Morgan is slightly more cautious, noting that although current interest rates are relatively high, expectations that the Fed will start lowering rates, combined with strong demand from central banks, will help sustain gold prices.

Meanwhile, FX Empire appears more optimistic. Analyst AG Thorson believes that if geopolitical conflicts worsen or the economy enters a slowdown, gold could surge to $3,000 per ounce in 2568.

Morgan Stanley and UBS also have positive outlooks on gold prices but warn investors to be cautious of too rapid a rise. Morgan Stanley expects it to hit $2,800 in 2568, while UBS is concerned about potential short-term weakness.

The Reality Behind: Why Is Gold Growing So Strong?

Overall, the rise of gold to $2,790 per ounce in October 2567 has solid reasons behind it.

First factor: Central Bank Awakening

In the first quarter of 2567, global central banks net bought 290 tons of gold, 36% above the quarterly average. This signals a major challenge to the existing US dollar system.

China is a key player, increasing its gold holdings from about 1,900 tons to 2,500 tons, clearly signaling a desire to reduce dependence on the greenback. India also plans to increase its gold reserves from 7% to over 10% by 2025, indicating a deep structural shift in the global financial system.

Second factor: Global Tensions

The Russia-Ukraine war remains a hot topic. Conflicts in the Middle East persist, and political uncertainties in the US regarding presidential decisions all drive investors toward less volatile assets, making gold a safe haven.

Third factor: Changing Interest Rate Policies

When interest rates are low, gold, which does not yield interest, becomes more attractive. Expectations that the Fed will start easing rates in 2567 make gold a compelling option.

Fourth factor: Economic Uncertainty

Major countries with deficit-driven monetary policies raise concerns about long-term inflation. Gold naturally serves as a hedge against this risk.

Technical Analysis: What Do the Numbers Say?

From a chart perspective, gold is currently in a correction phase from its high of $2,790 per ounce.

Key support is at $2,447, aligning with the 200-day moving average. As long as prices stay above this level, the bullish trend remains intact, despite some short-term pullbacks.

The critical resistance is at $2,800, where prices previously attempted to break through but failed.

The RSI indicator shows the market has exited overbought territory, signaling room for further upward movement. The MACD is approaching the Zero Line; if it crosses above, it will confirm a medium-term bullish trend.

Trading volume increases as prices rise, indicating investor confidence in the upward trend.

When to Buy and What Is the Fair Value?

Potential Entry Points

Based on the chart, a suitable entry point is when prices approach $2,447. If prices fall below $2,500, it presents another opportunity to watch closely.

Smart Investment Amounts

Most experts recommend allocating about 5-10% of your total investment portfolio to gold, not exceeding 15-20%, to ensure proper diversification. For example, if your total investment is 1 million baht, investing in gold between 50,000-100,000 baht is advisable.

Safe Accumulation Strategies

Using a dollar-cost averaging approach is better than investing all at once. Divide your total amount into 4-6 parts and buy gradually as prices decline. Gold’s price is never static, which opens opportunities for strategic accumulation.

Appropriate Holding Period

For long-term investment (3-5 years), gold offers excellent diversification benefits, often moving inversely to risk assets like stocks.

For short-term (6 months - 1 year), be cautious of volatility and have clear entry and exit plans.

Risk Assessment: Prepare for Fluctuations

Although gold investment is attractive, it is not entirely risk-free. Historically, gold prices have fallen 10-15% in short periods during market volatility, and in worst-case scenarios, declines of 20-25% during financial crises.

If you invest 100,000 baht, be prepared for the possibility that this amount could drop to 85,000-90,000 baht in the short term, or even 75,000-80,000 baht during a crisis.

Final Summary: Making Rational Decisions

In today’s fragile global financial environment, gold presents an opportunity for sustainable diversification. However, the most important thing is to assess your risk appetite and plan accordingly.

Do not invest money you might need soon; instead, include gold as part of a long-term strategy alongside other assets to achieve balanced and effective diversification.