1: Discuss the impact of Venezuela on the crypto circle.

First, the conclusion: Venezuela has driven up BTC this wave.
After the Venezuela incident, BTC's price actually rose above $92,000. The rise wasn't due to increased geopolitical risk, but because the logic of money changed.
Pay attention to the details: BTC initially dipped first, and the real turning point occurred when the market began to realize that the US was not just politically intervening but also aiming to control oil. The market started betting that oil prices would continue to fall. If Venezuela's oil were integrated into the US system, the chain reaction would be very clear: oil prices would drop, US inflation pressures would ease, inflation would decline, the Federal Reserve would accelerate rate cuts, and the dollar would depreciate accordingly.
BTC is precisely a fixed asset against the long-term purchasing power of the dollar. So, the current rally in BTC is not driven by emotional hype but is very orderly: dips are bought back immediately, retests occur, and re-accumulation happens. This indicates that large funds are re-pricing, not retail investors controlling the price.
Looking at the macro environment in 2026, a few details become clearer:
· First, ETF funds have returned. In Q4 2025, many institutions withdrew due to tax and risk controls. At the start of 2026, US stocks hadn't fully resumed trading, but Bitcoin ETFs experienced large net inflows first, indicating asset allocation is being proactively planned.
· Second, whale behavior has reversed. Below $90,000, whales were selling. Once the price stabilized at key levels, these large addresses began to buy back, confirming their trend confirmation.
· Third, recent short positions have been cleared. The futures market previously accumulated a large number of shorts. Slight upward movements triggered chain stop-losses, similar to silver, representing a structural deleveraging. Does this mean the bear market is over? Geopolitical events can't determine the trend; they only amplify existing trends. If oil prices continue to decline and the US dollar index weakens systematically, ETF inflows can be sustained, and BTC is likely entering the "early stage of a new cycle."
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In the future, I will organize and review the coins I discuss in my posts for everyone's summary and discussion:
Historical performance only counts subscription posts, all are pre-emptive calls:
Stop loss: ---------❌ Percentage increase: ------📈
Take profit: ---------👍🏻 Percentage decrease: ------📉
Early take profit: -----👌🏻 Performance statistics are based on spot plus leverage calculations.
Holding position: -------❗