The most straightforward approach is actually very simple—trace the opponent's capital curve, at least three years of data. Compare it with the actual market conditions, analyze the specific performance of returns and drawdowns, and then combine it with position management to roughly assess their risk control level and execution capability.



In the trading community, there is indeed hierarchy suppression. High-level traders can easily see the level of lower-tier traders, although they may not be able to accurately predict who will survive in the end, they generally have a clear idea of who is doomed to fail. So the question is—how do beginners and lower-tier traders judge others' true level? Is there any entry point?

My experience is that a truly mature trader exhibits three qualities.

**First, an open mindset.** They doubt everything, yet accept everything. If the market claims there is something constant and unchanging, it is—because it is always changing. From dead silence → external shocks → energy gathering → eventual collapse → back to dead silence → waiting for the next external force. This is the law of entropy in the market. Each external force takes a different form, the path of gathering naturally varies, and the way it collapses is also diverse. Traders who dare to doubt and are good at absorbing can adjust themselves in time and keep up with the market’s rhythm. Conversely, if one clings to a fixed way of thinking, short-term luck might bring some gains, but taking this as the truth? When luck turns, it all vanishes into smoke.

**Second, simplicity and essence.** Trading, at its core, is a game of capital chips. All those fancy things are just gimmicks around these two elements. Is there a difference in trading skill levels? Yes, and where is it? It lies in the depth of uncovering the surface phenomena of the market. The closer this depth is to the essence of the game, the higher the probability of success. People who immerse themselves long-term in this kind of questioning and digging can naturally see through superficial appearances.
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DeFiChefvip
· 01-08 21:34
Are three years of data enough? I think it also depends on how he chats. People who truly understand tend to speak quite simply and don't use all those flashy things.
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Lonely_Validatorvip
· 01-06 07:01
Three years of data is indeed a brilliant move; looking at drawdowns is much more reliable than just looking at returns. This guy is right, having an open mindset is truly a watershed moment. Clinging to a single theory will eventually lead to failure. I especially agree with the idea of fundamental simplicity. Too many people are dazzled by indicators and fancy tricks, but it's really just a game of chips. If you can't look at three years, at least look at a complete cycle; otherwise, the data is meaningless. It sounds simple, but in reality, not many people actually follow through. Survivor bias is very real; those who survive are often more worth learning from than those who just make money. I can accept this trading philosophy, which is a hundred times better than those selling guaranteed success methods.
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FlatlineTradervip
· 01-06 06:43
Three years of data can really tell the story, but I still think it depends on integrity... too many people cheat.
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ImpermanentPhobiavip
· 01-06 06:39
Looking at three-year data is indeed a clever move, but what I really want to see is how those stubborn people end up haha The part about having an open mindset really hit me. I used to refuse to admit that my strategies were outdated, and as a result... you all know The phrase "simple essence" is interesting. To put it plainly, you still need to understand the game of funds; everything else is nonsense Feels like all of them are right, but executing it is a whole different story The analogy of market entropy change is pretty good; we are vividly experiencing this cycle
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PrivacyMaximalistvip
· 01-06 06:39
Three years of data can really reveal things, but most people don't have the patience to go through these account records and are just eager to follow the trend. Isn't this just self-cultivation as a rookie? It seems quite accurate, but I still think the most challenging part is having an open mindset, because truly accepting market changes is rare among traders. Most people end up being defeated by their own obsessions in the end. The part about the simple essence hit the mark. Fancy indicator systems are just used to bluff people; once you understand them, you'll realize it's not that complicated. Honestly, compared to looking at a three-year curve, I pay more attention to a person's attitude when facing losses. That’s the real skill. The core of capital and chips is not wrong to mention, but in reality, most people haven't realized this yet and have already been eliminated by market education.
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