Oil Dollar Cracks Widen: Revaluation of Crypto Assets Amid Venezuela's Turmoil

🔥🔥 Brothers, breaking news! A silent revolution is underway on the global energy chessboard. On January 1, 2026, subtle changes in Venezuela's situation, combined with the Federal Reserve's December FOMC decision to cancel the SRP cap, are accelerating the final breach of the oil dollar's last defense. This is not ordinary political news but a "financial nuclear explosion" that will influence global wealth distribution over the next decade.
Venezuela's "Double-Edged Sword" Effect: Falling Oil Prices ≠ Stronger Dollar
According to the latest market analysis, the US is promoting the return of oil companies to Venezuela, which will significantly increase global crude oil supply in the medium to long term. Industry experts predict Venezuela's daily oil production could increase by 500,000 barrels within two years, with exports potentially rising to 3 million barrels per day. However, this resonates with the oversupply pattern expected in the global oil market in 2026—Brent crude is projected to fall to the $50-70 per barrel range, with a further dip of $10 from 2025 levels.
Strangely, the traditional logic of "oil prices fall = dollar strengthens" is failing. Wall Street geopolitical expert Marko Papic points out that Trump's strategy toward Venezuela is actually a "maximum pressure negotiation tactic," aiming to find alternative energy leverage after Saudi Arabia ceases to cooperate with low oil prices. Deeper still, the real pressure in the energy market in 2026 will force the US to abandon fiscal stimulus and instead "fully squeeze the Federal Reserve" to implement politically driven monetary easing.
This means: Sticky energy inflation may be forced to be addressed through currency devaluation rather than rate hikes. Delphi Digital's latest data shows gold has surged 120% since early 2024, with central banks worldwide purchasing over 600 tons of gold in 2025, expected to reach 840 tons in 2026. When precious metals lead Bitcoin by three months in pricing a loosening cycle, currency devaluation rather than market collapse is the market's true expectation signal.
De-dollarization "Trisolation Movement": Not a Choice, but Survival
The cracks in the oil dollar system are tearing apart in three dimensions simultaneously:
First, sanctions backlash effect. Countries excluded from SWIFT have seen energy trade settled via cryptocurrencies grow over 400% in the past year. This is not conspiracy but a survival necessity. When traditional financial infrastructure becomes a weapon, blockchain's "neutrality" upgrades from a concept to an infrastructure.
Second, diversification of reserve assets. In 2025, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs reached $66.3 billion, with BlackRock's crypto assets soaring from $54.77 billion to $102.09 billion. Sovereign wealth funds increased their digital asset holdings from 0.5% to 3.2%, with 80% adopting a "gold + Bitcoin" dual-anchor model—gold for risk control (30-40% position), Bitcoin for growth capture.
Third, the alienation of the Federal Reserve's toolkit. After the December FOMC canceled the $500 billion daily SRP limit, banks can now borrow from the Fed with unlimited collateral of government bonds. This seemingly enhances liquidity but actually admits that traditional interest rate controls (reserve rate + ON RRP) have failed. When monetary policy loses independence, fiat currency credit depreciation accelerates.
Crypto Asset "New Three-Front Narrative": From Speculation to Necessity
In this upheaval, different crypto assets are forming clear strategic positions:
ZEC: Privacy as Sovereignty, Regulatory Breakthrough
Leading zero-knowledge proof project Zcash (ZEC) is experiencing a "rebirth." On January 3, 2026, ZEC price stabilized at $535, with a 56.29% increase over 30 days and a staggering 261.01% over 90 days. More importantly, fundamental changes:
• Privacy DeFi integration: Rhea Finance launched ZEC lending services, with a daily trading volume of $883 million, and 4.1 million ZEC (25% of total supply) entered privacy mode, sharply reducing circulating supply.
• Regulatory breakthrough: The December CLARITY Act explicitly exempts ZEC from privacy coin bans, and the SEC is reviewing spot ZEC ETF applications. Grayscale's $137 million trust indicates institutional demand is brewing.
• Supply tightening: Major holders continue to accumulate, with 73% of ZEC held for over a year. After the 2028 halving, annual issuance will drop to 780,000 coins.
ZEC's ultimate value lies not in speculation but in becoming a "Swiss Bank 2.0" for sovereign entities to conduct confidential settlements. When energy trade needs to bypass SWIFT but still meet some compliance requirements, ZEC's optional privacy is more strategically valuable than Monero's (XMR) full anonymity.
XRP: Infrastructure for Cross-Border Payments
Ripple benefits from the "fusion of traditional finance and crypto." The 1 billion XRP unlocked on January 1, 2026 (worth about $1.9 billion) was expected to create selling pressure, but Ripple typically re-locks 60-80% into escrow accounts. Actual circulating supply increased by less than 300-400 million, fully offset by 29 consecutive days of net fund inflows into the US spot XRP ETF.
Currently, XRP trades at $2.03, forming a strong consolidation zone between $2.0 and $2.5. If RippleNet expands and ODL (On-Demand Liquidity) adoption increases, coupled with regulatory clarity, XRP is shifting from a "securities suspect" to a "cross-border settlement layer," a deeper narrative upgrade beyond just "price appreciation."
BTC/ETH: Twin Stars of Digital Gold and Digital Oil
Bitcoin's "digital oil" narrative is no longer just a slogan. The $66.3 billion net inflow into 2025 spot ETFs proves sovereign funds are strategically allocating BTC as a "hedge against currency devaluation + emerging market reserve asset." When the oil dollar cracks, Bitcoin's "non-sovereign" nature and "energy consumption proof" become its credit foundation linked to real energy assets.
Ethereum, with its smart contract ecosystem, is becoming a "refinery" for the "digital oil." Tokenization of energy trade, carbon credit settlements, decentralized grids, and other applications are transforming ETH into the underlying asset of a "programmable energy economy."
2026 Practical Strategy: Layout in Cracks, Explode in Silence
Core logic: The shrinking liquidity in traditional markets (high interest rates) will coexist with the rising independence of crypto markets. This is not a paradox but a sign of the birth of a dual-track financial system.
Positioning suggestions:
1. Defensive Anchor (30-40%): Gold + Bitcoin spot ETF, hedge against fiat devaluation.
2. Offensive Pincer (40-50%): ZEC (privacy settlement narrative) + XRP (cross-border payment narrative), capture de-dollarization benefits.
3. Options Enhancement (10-20%): ETH DeFi yield products, gain liquidity premiums.
Key Monitoring Indicators:
• Actual Venezuelan crude oil production data (monthly OPEC reports)
• Russia's crypto trade settlement share (tracked by Chainalysis)
• Central bank digital asset holdings (IMF Financial Stability Report)
• ZEC privacy TVL growth (Rhea Finance dashboard)
• XRP exchange supply (at 8-year lows, potential supply shocks)
Soul-Searching Questions and Answers
If cracks appear in the oil dollar system, who are the biggest winners?
In the short term, Bitcoin will take the lead—highest path dependence of institutional funds and regulatory clarity. But in the medium term (2026-2028), ZEC could emerge as the biggest dark horse: when sovereign entities start using crypto for "non-public" energy trade, the demand for privacy-compliant coins will shift from "speculation" to "strategic material," and this narrative shift could lead to valuation reconfiguration similar to Bitcoin's glory in 2016-2017.
XRP follows a steady path, becoming the "municipal bond" of the transition from traditional finance to crypto—low yield but high certainty.
🔥【Interactive Topic】🔥
Brothers, what do you think in this grand dismantling of the oil dollar:
1. Privacy coins (ZEC) vs Payment coins (XRP), who can capture the trillion-dollar energy trade settlement market?
2. If the Fed is forced to restart QE in 2026, will Bitcoin first reach 150,000 or Ethereum break through 10,000?
3. In your portfolio, what are your positions in gold, BTC, ZEC, and XRP?
Leave your insights in the comments. If it gets over a thousand likes, I will do a live trading session! Share with your crypto comrades still sleeping—by 2026, let’s find the light in the cracks! 💎🚀
#加密市场开年反弹 $ETH