#我的2026第一条帖 Daily Market Analysis $BTC ➕$ETH

The timing window for this rebound is just before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision on January 27. The probability of a rate cut is currently only 16%, so it is unlikely that there will be a rate cut in January.
From the market structure perspective, when BTC dropped to just above 80,000, it was strictly a oversold correction. Up to now, it hasn't even touched the 0.618 retracement level.
Therefore, this wave of market movement should be viewed as a rebound. Whether BTC can hold above 94,000 is very critical. The subsequent pullback's level will basically determine the fate of the bulls. The 91,000–92,000 range is the short-term critical zone.
Looking at the weekly chart, the previous large-scale upward movement has long ended. We are now in a rebound phase within a downtrend cycle. The long-term logic has not reversed; the 7,000-range remains a zone that needs to be taken seriously.
BTC's weekly support is roughly around 75,000, with resistance between 98,000 and 100,000. Currently, BTC has broken through the key 91,000 level on the daily chart, but overhead resistance is strong. For example, if it can't break through 94,000, it is likely to fall back to around 90,000 for repeated testing.
ETH's structure is relatively clearer. As long as it stays above 3,170 without effectively breaking down, 3,400 is basically stable. Volatility doesn't matter; just maintain the right-side trend.