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WILL ALTSEASON FINALLY HAPPEN IN 2026 ?
Yes, it’s possible. Let me explain.
1) The historical cycle most people forget
Altcoin cycles don’t start randomly.
They usually start after OTHERS/BTC bottoms and break out.
In Q4 2016, ALT/BTC bottomed.
The breakout came soon after, and Q1-Q2 2017 turned into a strong altcoin run.
In Q4 2020, the same thing happened.
ALT/BTC bottomed again, broke its downtrend, and Q1-Q2 2021 became the next major alt cycle.
Both times, the pattern was clear:
Bottom first → Breakout → Altcoins outperform Bitcoin in the following quarters.
2) Where we are now in 2026 ?
- ALT/BTC has been in a downtrend for almost 4 years.
- RSI is most oversold ever in history.
- MACD turning green after 21 months.
- Possible bullish crossover.
The downtrend appears to have bottomed in Q4 2025 and is now very close to breaking out.
The structure today looks very similar to the periods right before previous altcoin runs.
3) The Russell 2000 connection
Now look at equities.
The Russell 2000 is trading above its previous all-time high and holding well.
This index matters because it reflects risk appetite.
In late 2016, the Russell broke out first → altcoins followed in 2017
In late 2020, the same thing happened → altcoins followed in 2021
The similar Russell breakout has happened again in Q4 2025. (This time, Russell breakout was delayed by 1 year. )
4) Why this cycle feels delayed?
Many expected this setup in 2024, but key triggers were missing.
- The Fed balance sheet was still contracting.
- Liquidity was tight.
- Risk appetite was low.
Those conditions only started improving toward the end of 2025.
So the cycle is not broken.
It simply shifted forward by about one year.
5) Why 2026 could be the year of alts?
Right now, we have:
- ALT/BTC bottoming in Q4 2025
- Russell 2000 breaking out in Q4 2025
- Liquidity starting to improve
- Potential regulatory clarity heading into 2026
None of this guarantees an alt season.
But historically, when these pieces lined up together, alts went on a big rally.