Triple Witching Day is coming! Will the US stock market stir up waves on March 21?

The first “Triple Witching” day of 2025 is coming on March 21, and the market is both期待 and警惕 about this date. How much震蕩 will this market event, called “Triple Witching,” bring?

What is Triple Witching? Why is it so关注?

“Triple Witching” refers to the trading day when stock options, index options, and index futures contracts all expire simultaneously. The集中到期 of these three types of derivatives often triggers a surge in trading volume, leading to increased market volatility. According to Citigroup’s statistics, this Triple Witching is预计将有高达4.5兆美元的合约同步到期, highlighting the scale of the event.

What do analysts think? Volatility might be overestimated

However, not everyone is感到紧张 about March 21. Citigroup stock trading strategist Vishal Vivek offers a convincing perspective — compared to historical levels, this week’s Friday’s Triple Witching may not be as关键 as imagined. He points out that the current未平倉合约规模 is relatively低, and traders’仓位分布 is relatively均衡, all of which help缓冲潜在的市场冲击.

Risks still exist and cannot be完全忽视

Despite analysts’乐观态度, market participants still need to提高警觉. Whether it’s展期 or平仓, both could trigger a surge in交易量. Additionally, the current宏观环境的复杂性不容小觑 — whether the Federal Reserve can implement显著降息 under潜在通膨 and贸易关税压力 remains a悬念. This不确定性 has already引发分歧 on Wall Street, making the outlook for the US stock market变得扑朔迷离.

As of now, the美元指数 is震荡 within a range seeking direction, and the performance of the Nasdaq 100 index also reveals market的纠结情绪.

There are three more Triple Witching days this year

It is worth noting that Triple Witching occurs四次每年. Besides the first one on March 21, investors also need to mark June 20, September 19, and December 19 on their calendars, as these will be moments when the stock market可能面临波动.