#预测市场发展 I really agree with what Vitalik said. To be honest, over the past two years of trading on exchanges, the most annoying thing has been those absolute claims on social media—"inevitable collapse" or "certain surge"—they all create panic or false hope, and no one is responsible afterward.

The logic of prediction markets is actually the same as following traders: real money talks. On Polymarket, the chance of a UK civil war is only 3%. This isn’t derived from retweets and comments; it’s the result of a group of people who actually put their money where their mouth is, using economic incentives to vote. Telling the truth can make money, lying results in losses—this kind of mechanism produces a consensus that’s closer to the truth than a hundred thousand emotional microblogs.

The same applies to trader assessments. When I choose someone to follow, I never believe those exaggerated claims; I only look at historical return curves, drawdown control, and position logic. Data exposes everything. The value of prediction markets lies here—they force all participants to pay a price for their opinions, which is the most direct way to combat information noise.

I feel that mechanisms like this will become increasingly important in the future, especially in the field of risk assets.