## Analyzing Bitcoin's Cyclical Rise: What Is a Bull Run in Cryptocurrency

In the world of crypto assets, nothing is more eye-catching than Bitcoin's periodic surges. Since its inception in 2009, this largest digital asset by market cap has experienced several price rallies of varying scales, each accompanied by different market drivers and evolving investor participation. To understand where Bitcoin's next opportunity lies, first clarify what a bull run is and the underlying mechanics behind it.

### What Is a Bull Run? Analyzing Technical Indicators and On-Chain Data

The essence of a Bitcoin bull run is a sustained price increase over a relatively short period, usually accompanied by a surge in trading volume, social media buzz, and active wallets. From a technical perspective, RSI (Relative Strength Index) exceeding 70 indicates strong buying pressure, while breaking through the 50-day and 200-day moving averages often signals the start of an upward trend.

On-chain data provides further insight. When Bitcoin's exchange reserves decline steadily, it indicates accumulation by large holders; increased inflows of stablecoins into exchanges suggest substantial capital entering the market; and a growing number of active addresses reflects rising participation. These micro indicators, combined, paint a complete picture of a bull run.

According to the latest data, Bitcoin's current price is $92.73K, with a 24-hour increase of +1.47%, and a year-to-date gain of +3.86% (30-day cycle). The number of active addresses has reached 55,267,312, indicating sustained high engagement.

### Historical Review: Four Key Upward Cycles

**2013: Early Wild Growth**

Bitcoin's first notable price surge occurred in 2013. Starting from about $145 in May, it peaked at $1,200 in December, rising 730% in just 7 months. The main drivers were early adopters flooding in and infrastructure improvements. Additionally, the Cyprus banking crisis accelerated the trend, prompting investors disillusioned with traditional finance to turn to this emerging asset.

However, the rally was short-lived. In early 2014, Mt.Gox, which handled 70% of global Bitcoin transactions, suffered a security breach and eventually collapsed, causing Bitcoin to fall below $300—a drop of over 75%. This event exposed vulnerabilities in market infrastructure but also taught survivors the importance of risk management.

**2017: Retail Frenzy and ICO Bubble**

The 2017 bull run was a different story altogether. Bitcoin soared from $1,000 at the start of the year to nearly $20,000 by December, a 1,900% increase. Daily trading volume skyrocketed from $200 million to $15 billion. The driving forces included a frenzy of ICO (Initial Coin Offering) funding attracting many newcomers, user-friendly trading platforms enabling easy participation, and rising prices amplified by media coverage.

But the cost was high. In early 2018, regulatory concerns and market correction led to an 84% crash from $20,000. China's ban on ICOs and exchange shutdowns worsened the situation. This bubble burst marked a turning point, prompting calls for more mature infrastructure and regulation.

**2020-2021: Institutional Capital and "Digital Gold" Narrative**

2020 marked a turning point. Starting from $8,000, Bitcoin broke $64,000 in April 2021, a 700% increase. The main actors shifted from retail investors to institutions. Companies like MicroStrategy, Tesla, and Square incorporated Bitcoin into their asset portfolios, often with real capital.

The core logic behind this rally was "digital gold"—in a global environment of quantitative easing and low interest rates, investors sought an asset to hedge inflation. Bitcoin's fixed supply of 21 million coins made it the preferred choice. Institutional involvement also brought derivatives (futures) and fund products, enabling traditional investors to participate.

Environmental concerns about mining and regulatory scrutiny appeared during this cycle but did not prevent the influx of institutional capital.

**2024-2025: Spot ETF and Supply Shock Dual Drivers**

The current bull run is characterized by unprecedented compliance. In January 2024, the SEC approved a spot Bitcoin ETF, providing a legal channel for traditional pension funds and mutual funds to enter. By November, ETF net inflows exceeded $4.5 billion, with BlackRock's IBIT ETF alone holding over 467,000 BTC.

Simultaneously, the April 2024 Bitcoin halving further tightened supply. Halving, occurring every four years, is a built-in scarcity mechanism that halves the rate of new Bitcoin issuance. Historically, each halving has been followed by significant price increases (+5,200% after 2012, +315% after 2016, +230% after 2020).

As a result, Bitcoin's price has risen from $40,000 at the start of the year to $92.73K in November, a 132% increase, with market cap surpassing $1.85 trillion. Analysts even predict it could reach $100,000 by year-end. This cycle's features include high institutional participation, mature infrastructure, and a relatively friendly policy environment.

### How to Recognize a Bull Run: Four Dimensions of Observation

**Technical Signals**

During the 2024-25 upward cycle, Bitcoin's RSI has remained above 70 for extended periods, which in traditional analysis indicates overbought conditions. However, in crypto markets, this often signifies continued strength rather than an imminent correction. Prices have repeatedly broken through the 50-day and 200-day moving averages, forming a clear upward channel.

**On-Chain Data Confirmation**

Bitcoin reserves on exchanges continue to decline, indicating accumulation rather than distribution by large holders. Stablecoin inflows remain high, showing strong buying power. The increasing total number of addresses and new addresses also reflect expanding market participation.

**Institutional Behavior Tracking**

Companies like MicroStrategy continue to increase their Bitcoin holdings in 2024. ETF net inflows have set new records. Public data shows total Bitcoin holdings in all spot ETFs have exceeded 1 million BTC.

**Macro Environment Interpretation**

Policy-wise, the U.S. may introduce a "Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Act," considering the purchase of 1 million BTC over five years, which would boost demand at the national level. Geopolitical uncertainties also elevate the demand for "digital gold."

### Why Bull Runs Occur: The Triangle of Supply, Demand, and Policy

**Supply Side: Halving-Induced Absolute Scarcity**

Bitcoin's fixed supply is the foundation of its value. Each halving reduces new supply by half, creating a "artificial shortage" in economic terms. When demand remains stable or grows, prices tend to rise. Data shows 55,267,312 addresses holding Bitcoin, with a circulating supply of 19,971,778 BTC. Miners' daily output continues to decline, maintaining supply-side pressure.

**Demand Side: From Retail to Institutions to Nations**

2013 marked retail discovery, 2017 was retail frenzy, 2020-21 saw institutional entry, and 2024-25 involves multi-layered participation—retail, institutions, and national-level actors all moving in the same direction. This diversification and upgrading of demand strengthen the sustainability of the bull run.

**Policy Side: From Bans to Embrace**

Over the past decade, regulatory attitudes have shifted significantly. From early bans in many countries to now considering Bitcoin as a strategic reserve, this attitude reversal is itself a major catalyst for bull runs.

### Preparing for the Next Wave: What Investors Should Do

**Step One: Know Who You Are**

Profiting from a bull run requires understanding your risk tolerance. Are you a long-term holder or a trader? An institution or retail investor? Different identities call for different strategies. Long-term holders should focus on macro cycles and fundamentals, traders need to be more sensitive to technical and sentiment changes.

**Step Two: Choose the Right Tools**

Options are now plentiful: for simplicity, a spot ETF is easiest; for self-management, buy on reputable crypto exchanges with strong security measures (such as two-factor authentication, cold storage, regular security audits); for large, long-term holdings, hardware wallets are the safest choice.

**Step Three: Build a Risk Management System**

Even during a bull run, set stop-loss points. Emotional swings can lead to poor decisions; having predefined trading rules helps avoid FOMO and panic. Also, avoid putting all funds into Bitcoin—diversified portfolios reduce overall risk.

**Step Four: Track Macro Triggers**

Pay attention to upcoming halving cycles, new policy announcements, and key economic data (like inflation figures, interest rate decisions). These are critical variables influencing the pace of the bull run.

**Step Five: Understand Taxation and Compliance**

Crypto gains are taxable in most jurisdictions. Learn your local tax laws in advance, file on time to avoid trouble, and keep detailed transaction records.

### How Technological Upgrades Will Change the Game

Bitcoin's network itself is evolving. Re-enabling features like OP_CAT could bring Layer-2 scaling and simple DeFi functionalities, transforming Bitcoin from merely a "store of value" to a platform capable of complex transactions. Such upgrades could expand Bitcoin's application scenarios and potentially become a new story in the next bull run.

### Final Words: The Certainty of Cycles and the Uncertainty of Timing

Bitcoin's cycles are certain—halving every four years, long-term institutional adoption, and improving policy attitudes. These won't change. But exactly when a peak will form, how high prices will go before a correction, remains unpredictable.

History shows that the best way to participate in Bitcoin bull runs is not to predict the top but to understand the cycles, do your homework, get in at reasonable points, and manage risks well. The current wave already has strong fundamental support. But no matter how optimistic, remember the core characteristic of crypto markets: high returns come with high risks. Be prepared, and you may profit in the next cycle; unprepared, you risk being overwhelmed by volatility.

Bitcoin at $92.73K, the bull run is still ongoing. The question isn't "Will it continue to rise?" but "Are you ready to participate?"