$1.45 billion options contracts target $100,000, why are traders focusing on betting on BTC breaking key levels

The Bitcoin options market is signaling a clear bullish trend. According to the latest data, on Deribit, the world’s largest crypto options exchange, the open interest for $100,000 strike options has reached $1.45 billion, with $828 million expiring in January. More notably, in the past 24 hours alone, open interest increased by 420 BTC, corresponding to a notional value of $38.8 million. Meanwhile, a whale trader invested $2.86 million to buy 3,000 January 30th expiry $100,000 call options, currently with an unrealized profit of $2.463 million. Behind these figures, traders are betting with real money that Bitcoin will break through $100,000 this month.

What story is the options market telling?

Abnormal surge in call option trading volume

Since last Friday, the trading volume of Bitcoin call options with a $100,000 strike price and January expiry has significantly increased. This is not retail investors blindly following the trend, but a concentrated strategic positioning by market participants. Wintermute strategists pointed out that current trading mainly involves rolling over positions, with the most active contracts expiring on January 30th.

What does this mean? Call options represent investors betting that Bitcoin’s price will rise above a certain level before expiry. The focus on the $100,000 strike indicates that traders generally believe BTC could reach this level by the end of January.

The true meaning behind open interest size

The $1.45 billion open interest sounds large, but the key is the growth rate of this number. The increase of 420 BTC in the past 24 hours, with its notional value, indicates continuous capital inflow. This incremental growth is not random fluctuation but a directional choice.

When market participants buy call options with real money, their risk is clear: if Bitcoin does not break $100,000 before January 30, the premium is lost entirely. The whale’s decision to invest $2.86 million underscores how high-confidence this bet is.

How far is the target?

Current price and psychological level

As of the latest data, Bitcoin is trading at $92,546.71. From December 31 to January 5, BTC gained about 5%, with prices approaching $93,000 on Monday morning. This means there’s roughly $7,400 remaining to reach the $100,000 target, an approximately 8% increase.

From a technical perspective, QCP Capital notes that once spot Bitcoin effectively breaks above $94,000, demand for high-strike call options could further amplify, creating positive feedback. This level has become a key technical support and psychological threshold.

Market structure revealed by funding rates

The annualized funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts on Deribit has risen above 30%, a critical indicator. High funding rates usually suggest strong bullish momentum, but also indicate that some traders are hedging by shorting call options. In other words, the market has both bullish and hedging forces at play. This structural hedging demand becomes especially evident when spot prices break above $90,000.

What could trigger a breakout?

Continuing market sentiment heating up

Since the official start of 2026, Bitcoin traders in derivatives markets have shown a clear bullish bias. This continues the main trend since 2025 — the options market has long been positioned between $100,000 and $140,000, with bullish sentiment dominating.

When large sums of capital concentrate in one direction, market participants reinforce this expectation. The $2.46 million unrealized profit of the whale will motivate more traders to follow; the surge in options volume will attract more capital. Once this positive feedback loop starts, it often drives prices rapidly through resistance levels.

Macro environment support

According to recent reports, M&A and IPO activity in the crypto industry in 2025 hit record highs, reflecting increased confidence from traditional financial institutions in digital assets. From Coinbase’s acquisition of Deribit to Kraken’s purchase of NinjaTrader, and Circle’s preparations for an IPO, these moves are reshaping the industry landscape, indicating a maturing market.

Additionally, macro factors such as the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy outlook, and the Bank of Japan’s research on banks holding Bitcoin, provide fundamental support for Bitcoin. These combined factors create favorable conditions for a breakout above $100,000.

Key observations moving forward

Importance of technical levels

$94,000 is a critical technical level in the near term. According to QCP Capital, once this level is effectively broken, demand for $100,000 call options will further increase. This can create a self-reinforcing cycle: rising prices boost call option demand, which in turn prompts traders to hedge by increasing spot positions, pushing prices higher.

Time window pressure

There are about 25 days until January 30. This timeframe presents both opportunity and pressure for options traders. As expiry approaches, the time value of options decays faster. For traders holding call options, this means they need to see price increases within a relatively short period; otherwise, even if their directional bet is correct, profits may diminish due to time decay.

Summary

The Bitcoin options market is speaking through data. The $1.45 billion open interest, $2.46 million unrealized profit, and over 30% funding rate all point in the same direction: market participants are heavily betting on Bitcoin breaking through $100,000.

This is not just a short-term gamble by traders but also a reflection of market confidence in the future of digital assets. $100,000 has evolved from a psychological milestone into a phased target widely expected by traders in early 2026. In the short term, $94,000 has become a decisive technical level — breaking above it, $100,000 may no longer be distant; failing to hold it could cool the enthusiasm in the options market.

The next 25 days will reveal how this options market bet unfolds, with market participants watching closely.