As the new year begins, the US military actions against Venezuela have triggered a series of ripple effects across the global political arena and financial markets. The incident led to the arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, and then-US President Trump announced plans to take over the country's oil industry, immediately sparking a political storm domestically.

Congress opposition quickly stepped forward, with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer publicly criticizing the move as "reckless and deceptive," warning of Trump's intentions to control foreign resources. Public opinion exploded, but there is an interesting phenomenon here: the market responded with a completely different answer.

On two well-known political prediction platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, the probability of Trump's impeachment actually decreased. The data on Polymarket is more straightforward—the likelihood of impeachment has fallen to about 10%. Traders clearly do not believe that this military action will directly threaten Trump's political standing.

Even more interesting is the performance of the token market. Cryptocurrencies related to Trump's personal brand experienced a noticeable rise within 24 hours after the event. WLFI tokens achieved double-digit growth, and TRUMP tokens rebounded, re-entering the top 100 by market cap.

This creates a market dislocation phenomenon: the traditional political risk assessments predicting an impeachment crisis did not materialize, but related crypto assets signaled a bullish outlook. This may indicate that, in the current market environment, some participants interpret Trump's aggressive actions as a strengthening of power rather than a weakening, thereby pushing up the prices of related assets. The two sets of logic—politics and markets—clash right before our eyes.