2026-01-05 08:26:18

This week, the macro environment is intensively bombarding the market, with several key time points and data points that must be closely monitored:

Monday at 1:30 AM, Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari will appear and speak at the American Economic Association. This guy is a 2026 FOMC voter, and whatever he says can influence market expectations of Federal Reserve policy.

Immediately following on Tuesday at 9:00 PM, Richmond Fed President Barkin (2027 voter) will also make a statement. The two officials' speeches will basically provide signals on the Fed's upcoming policy direction.

On Wednesday at 9:15 PM, we'll look at December ADP employment figures. Last month, it dropped by 32,000; this time, the forecast is an increase to 45,000. If this can be realized, it indicates that hiring in small and medium-sized enterprises is picking up again.

On Thursday at 9:30 PM, initial jobless claims will be released—previously 199,000, with a forecast of 216,000. If this data exceeds expectations, it could hint at the beginning of a wave of layoffs.

The most critical is Friday at 9:30 PM. December unemployment rate drops from 4.6% to 4.5%, and non-farm payrolls jump from -105,000 to +55,000. If these figures are confirmed, it indicates the employment market is recovering. But beware of conflicting data—unemployment rate falls while non-farm payrolls rebound sharply, so we need to see if there have been changes in statistical methods.

Kashkari also has an online meeting at 11:00 PM on Friday, and Barkin will speak again about economic outlook early Saturday at 2:30 AM. The direction of these officials' speeches can determine market expectations for rate hikes. Currently, employment data is volatile, and policy direction depends on the data face.

My feeling is that this week's data will mostly follow forecasts, and the crypto market may rise first and then fluctuate. Improvements in non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate will boost risk assets, but if officials lean hawkish and emphasize inflation risks, market sentiment could be dampened. So, during monitoring, both sides need to be watched, and avoid being led by one-sided news. How to position later depends on the data once it comes out and becomes clearer.

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BlockImposter

· 20h ago

Kashkari is really a ticking time bomb; every time he speaks, the market trembles. Friday's data will be the real test, with the combination of falling unemployment rate and non-farm rebound being a bit suspicious. As soon as hawkish comments come out, it's game over. Risk assets should be cleared. Wait, could this data be just on paper looking good but actually fake? I was caught once last year. Having to pay attention to both sides but not making any money from either is the most real situation.

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GateUser-e19e9c10

· 01-08 02:24

Friday's non-farm payrolls are the real main event, everything else is just a appetizer This week I really have to stay up late watching the market, even a slight deviation in one data point could cause a reverse sell-off Kashkari and Barkin take turns, feels like they are setting traps for the market... Unemployment rate drops and non-farm rebounds, this conflicting data is the most annoying Rather than waiting for officials' speeches, it's better to just watch the data trend; no matter how eloquent, data can lie The judgment of rising first then fluctuating is too safe; I bet the data exceeding expectations will directly take off This week is really a test of technical analysis skills, otherwise it's easy to get cut

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NewPumpamentals

· 01-08 00:46

Kashkari, this guy, can crash the market just by opening his mouth. Friday's non-farm payrolls are the real test.

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GasFeeCrier

· 01-05 16:58

It's another Fed talk week, sleep schedule has to be pushed back again, mouse head life

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ContractCollector

· 01-05 08:56

If this Friday's non-farm payrolls truly rebound to +55,000, it was already time to buy the dip. It's too late to say anything now.

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fren.eth

· 01-05 08:56

Damn, Friday's non-farm payrolls are the real bloodbath; the chances of two data points conflicting are extremely high...

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SchroedingerAirdrop

· 01-05 08:51

Wow, this week has really been a bombardment. The data from Friday is truly the killer move.

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WhaleWatcher

· 01-05 08:48

Friday's data is the real watershed moment, with non-farm payrolls jumping from negative to positive by such a margin... stay alert. Officials are one after another making statements, hawkish comments suggest risk assets will suffer. I bet cryptocurrencies will surge first and then retrace this week; don't be fooled by the initial gains. There's a high chance of conflicting data, with the unemployment rate dropping and non-farm payrolls rebounding—this combo is a bit suspicious. Kashkari is the guy who loves to stir things up; he started throwing smoke screens as early as 1:30 AM Monday. The real test is still Friday; everything else is just a prelude.

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MetaverseHomeless

· 01-05 08:32

Getting up at 1:30 AM on Monday to watch the market—this life is too exciting haha --- Kashkari, this guy, starts trembling as soon as he opens his mouth about the market. I really don’t understand why our crypto circle is so dominated by traditional finance. --- If non-farm payrolls really jump from negative to positive, we’ll have to see what officials’ attitudes are. Honestly, it depends on whether they want to loosen policies or not. --- Non-farm payrolls rising to 216,000? Hmm... feels like a wave of layoffs is indeed brewing. Need to be cautious. --- How to arrange this week’s live market watch? It seems like 24-hour shifts are necessary. I’m entrusting my life to the Fed. --- The clash between unemployment rate and non-farm payrolls is too common. When the official stance shifts, everything can turn around—it's all a numbers game. --- I’m too familiar with the rhythm of initial rises followed by fluctuations. Come on, let me see whose chives are being harvested again this week. --- Two voting members’ speeches one after another seem like acting; they’re probably just reading prepared scripts. --- Actually, instead of watching the data, it’s better to watch whale wallets—that’s where the real gold and silver are. --- The reference significance of employment data is really diminished now. Who knows when the statistical standards will change again?

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