I'm still not quite clear about the US stock market trend, but I'm cautiously optimistic. Let's look at some data first: total margin debt has surged to $1.21 trillion, a new all-time high. The most outrageous part is that it increased by 32% in just five months, a growth rate only comparable to the internet bubble of 2000. Billion-dollar level fluctuations have become routine, with 119 occurrences this year alone, setting a record.

Where's the problem? Historical patterns are repeating. During the Great Depression in 1929, everyone borrowed money to buy stocks, and margin debt as a percentage of GDP soared to historic extremes. In the 2000 internet bubble, the Nasdaq's P/E ratio soared to 200, and retail investors' leverage increased at a rate second only to now. And during the 2008 financial crisis, derivatives combined with leverage, making daily fluctuations of hundreds of billions common.

The current situation is—these three major features are all appearing simultaneously. History has never seen such a path all at once. So, the risk level is truly unprecedented. I maintain a bearish outlook on the market.