The geopolitical script has been renewed again. The US announced actions in Venezuela, even indicating involvement in management during the transition period, and plans to introduce major American oil companies to invest in infrastructure repairs. This combination of measures seems formidable and offers plenty of room for imagination—after all, this is the country with the world's largest oil reserves.

However, the market's reaction has been surprisingly restrained. Why? Simply put: Venezuela's current production is already low, and as long as its core oil and gas facilities are not extensively destroyed, the actual supply gap is unlikely to appear in the short term. Coupled with the market's general expectation of a relatively loose oil supply this year, such geopolitical shocks are more easily absorbed as emotional fluctuations, and oil prices are unlikely to react out of control.

This is the awkward situation in Venezuela—huge reserves but poor production. On paper, this country holds the world's leading proven crude oil reserves, with extremely large numbers; but actual daily output hovers around a million barrels, with a limited share in global supply, and it cannot be considered a decisive factor in oil prices.

The huge mismatch between reserves and capacity directly shatters the dream of "taking over Venezuela to rewrite the global oil market." No matter how much political effort is exerted, the reality of capacity bottlenecks remains. Infrastructure repairs take time, and increasing production also requires time—these are variables that the oil market cannot quickly respond to in the short term.