$ETH Spot and Contract Trends Observation

From this 1-hour candlestick chart, technical traders can read quite a bit. The price is being tightly squeezed around 3156, with the Bollinger Bands' upper and lower bands converging very closely, indicating that volatility has reached its limit. Such market quietness is usually not a good sign; instead, it suggests energy is being accumulated. Looking at the MACD indicator, the DIF and DEA lines are repeatedly entangled near the zero line. This stalemate indicates that both bulls and bears are tugging within a narrow range, and at any moment, one side could gain the upper hand. This extreme compression state won't last long; my judgment is that within 24 to 48 hours, a breakout direction will definitely be chosen.

But if you only focus on trading based on the candlestick chart, that’s too superficial. My on-chain data monitoring system has recently triggered several key alerts, and these signals are more convincing than the chart itself.

**On-Chain Movements Are Not Simple**

In the past 4 hours, a long-dormant large address suddenly transferred 20,000 ETH to a major trading platform. What does this usually imply? On the surface, it might seem like preparing to sell, but at current prices, hard selling would be unprofitable. The more likely scenario is—this is preparing chips for a possible rally, and getting ready for coordinated moves in the futures market.

Net outflows of ETH from mainstream exchanges are accelerating. This is not a sign of market collapse; rather, it indicates that chips are being actively withdrawn and accumulated. When a large amount of tokens leave exchanges, it shows holders are tightening supply and locking in chips, not preparing to dump.

**The Real Variable Is in Fundamentals**

What is the market waiting for now? The specific implementation date of a key upgrade. This upgrade is the biggest fundamental catalyst in the coming months. Once the mainnet throughput and Gas fees see a qualitative leap, it will directly trigger the next wave of Layer 2 and application ecosystem narratives. Savvy big funds won’t wait for news to flood the market before acting—they are already positioning in advance.

**What About the Breakout Direction?**

My core judgment is clear: this balance between bulls and bears will not resolve through a slow decline. Combining the on-chain chip accumulation and the upgrade expectations, the probability of an upward breakout is much higher. Once the price stabilizes and breaks through the critical zone of 3160-3170 with sufficient volume, it is very likely to quickly test 3200, and then open up space toward 3300-3400.

**My Trading Plan**

Wait for the price to increase volume (this is crucial—must be accompanied by trading volume) and stay above 3165. I will then consider adding long positions. Place stops just below the support of the converging triangle’s lower boundary. If a false downward breakout and shakeout occur midway, that could be an even better opportunity to add to positions.