#预测市场发展 After the news about Trump's $1.3 billion sales volume came out, I saw Polymarket directly call out the misinformation — the prediction platform deemed this data "untrustworthy," with an 89% probability indicating sales this year are zero. This gives us a very practical tip: when developing prediction markets, learn to distinguish between "claims" and "actual transactions."

They claim $1.3 billion in sales is booming, but Polymarket requires "final approval + completed payment" as the real data, and these two standards are far apart. Many projects have used this approach in fundraising and token sales — releasing shocking numbers to attract attention first, but the actual implementation rate can be significantly lower.

When engaging in activities like this, think the same way: not all claimed interaction rewards can actually be received. You must see whether the project team has real financial actions. Before a new project launches, it's much more reliable to observe its fundraising background, team credentials, and other hard indicators than blindly following the trend. Prediction markets are tools that help us speak with data; used well, they can help us avoid many pitfalls.