2026-01-05 08:11:13

#2026年比特币行情展望 What does the market look like in 2026? Honestly, it won't be a straight line up. The price will definitely go up, but in the middle, there will be 2 to 4 sharp pullbacks to wash out retail traders who chase the rally with leverage, and then it will continue to surge. In a normal rhythm, the first half of the year is the window for hitting new highs and breaking previous highs, followed by a 20 to 35% deep correction to shake out weak hands, then a trend continuation or wide-range oscillation at high levels in the second half. In this market environment, only low-frequency trading, wide stop-losses, structural positioning, and swing trading can survive. I am more optimistic about going long in January and February.

What trading methods are not good? Chasing rallies, frequent stop-losses, intraday trading—these three are money-losers in 2026.

The core point is: 2026 is not a year for daily trading. If you insist on catching every wave every day, you'll just tire yourself out and likely lose money.

How to trade trend-following? One or two times a year is enough. The real way to make big money is not by daily scalp trading, but by accurately timing two or three trades per year. For example, when the market drops to a level where everyone is scared, or breaks through, stabilizes, and confirms a trend, such opportunities only come once or twice a year. Our job isn't to do more, but to wait until the risk is minimal before taking action.

Where does profit come from? From strategic dips and swing trading. Wait for the decline to finish, then get on board; sell when emotions are at a peak; place orders at key levels; after buying, don’t rush to exit—aim to hold a significant portion.

As long as the overall trend is intact, the intermediate fluctuations are just clouds. The trend will have multiple 20 to 30% deep corrections, so chasing rallies is a dead end. Wait for a correction and then enter in batches.

How to analyze specific levels? Remember these three key zones:

First, the annual trend center is around 85,000 to 95,000. This is the "bull market base" for 2026. If this level holds, stay above it and look for opportunities to go long. If it breaks on a quarterly basis, it’s a warning sign for the trend.

Second, the trend top is not a single point but a zone, from 150,000 to 180,000, with an extreme at 200,000. Don’t chase longs here; instead, take it as a reminder—start reducing positions above 140,000, avoid adding above 150,000, and consider exiting profits above 160,000. Don’t get too stubborn.

Third, the trend bottom is between 78,000 and 82,000. If in 2026 there’s a crash, panic across the entire market, and everyone is bearish, but the price stays around 80,000, that’s not risk—it’s an annual opportunity.

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RektDetective

· 18h ago

Ah, I'm already tired of this set of logic, but I keep getting proven wrong every time. I've tried low-frequency trading, but I still lost half my life. Chasing gains indeed sends money, but it's easy to miss the pullback, much easier said than done. Only 1 to 2 opportunities a year? I feel like there are 100 times a day where I think I could "earn with my eyes closed"... This set of card structure positions requires too much attention to detail; you must have someone watching the market. As a working person, I simply can't do that. The idea that swing trading is king sounds great, but in reality, it's just gambling on mindset—betting who can withstand this round of shakeout. I noted the bottom range of 78 to 82, but I guess I would chicken out again if it really drops there. Everything you said is correct, but executing it all is full of tears. In 2026, it still depends on luck.

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Blockblind

· 23h ago

Wow, finally someone explained this thoroughly. My previous frequent stop-losses really cost me a lot. I must keep in mind the advice to wait for a pullback before entering again, and stop chasing the pump to avoid losing money. That's right, there are only two or three opportunities a year. In 2025, I'll be placing orders every day until I get exhausted. I've noted the 85 to 95 range; I need to stick to the bottom line. Above 150, I really need to run, or else I'll get trapped again.

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GhostAddressMiner

· 01-08 00:05

The 85-95 range, I've long seen through the awakening mode of dormant wallets on the chain. The early addresses have been lurking here for a while. To put it nicely, it's actually just waiting for retail investors to run into the slaughterhouse, then blindly buy the dip, right? I've heard this kind of rhetoric too many times, that "annual opportunity" at $80... how many people had to get cut there. Is swing trading king? Haha, it's still about whose capital volume is bigger, then who is king. Low-frequency operations are correct, but you need to ask clearly—whose low frequency is it really?

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ForkPrince

· 01-07 04:55

The phrase "Wave is king" I respect, those who place orders every day are just here to deliver vegetables. Not chasing the rise really saves lives. Last time I was washed out by 10 points, now looking at the 85-95 range, I feel stable. Key positions are memorized, reduce positions at 140, prohibit at 150, this time I won't fight the market and lose money again. Waiting for the dip to buy again is too heartbreaking. When chasing highs, I always feel like I missed out, but those are all traps. What you said is spot on, there are only 1 to 2 big waves a year, other times just don't move. This rhythm is correct, the past two months have indeed been a bullish window, I am also waiting. Few who truly make money are constantly watching the market; I am now waiting for the whole internet to panic. Breaking 80 means picking up money; this time I have prepared enough ammunition.

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CoffeeOnChain

· 01-05 08:39

Basically, don't be reckless, just wait for the opportunity. --- Those who trade every day, just wait to eat dirt in 2026. --- I just want to ask, does anyone really dare to add positions above 150? Haha --- It sounds simple, but few can really hold back. --- Does last year's theory still work now? The market has changed. --- Low-frequency trading is fine, the problem is how to judge when the opportunity comes. --- Anyway, I’m optimistic about January and February, the rest can come slowly.

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NFTHoarder

· 01-05 08:35

Wait a minute, why do I feel this logic is a bit familiar? Low-frequency operations, waiting for opportunities, not chasing the rise... It's not wrong to say that, but who can really hold back at critical moments? Only 1 to 2 opportunities a year? What if I already placed an order in January? Not chasing from 150 to 180, bottom-fishing at 80 bucks... It sounds simple, but can your mindset stay stable during actual operations?

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MissedAirdropBro

· 01-05 08:33

Well said, constantly placing orders just deserves to be cut. I used to have this problem, and as a result, my account was directly wiped out. The phrase "Swing trading is king" hits the mark; waiting for a pullback to re-enter is the real strategy. No additional positions above 150; this rule is tattooed on me. I remember the 80-dollar bottom; when everyone panics, I'll just lie flat. Instead of watching the market every day, it's better to sleep soundly. Waking up to find it has risen again would be wonderful.

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BagHolderTillRetire

· 01-05 08:28

Oh no, why do I feel this logic sounds so familiar? I remember saying the same thing around this time last year. Low-frequency operations sound simple, but when the market is in front of you, everyone gets itchy. In the 150 to 180 range, I feel like 150 should be the point to sell, don't wait until 160. If it really hits the $80 level, I would go all in directly, even if it means bankruptcy, it's worth it. Chasing the rise indeed is like giving away money, but if you don't chase, you're afraid you might miss this bullish wave. Only 1 to 2 opportunities a year? What are you doing the rest of the time? Watching the show?

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GoldDiggerDuck

· 01-05 08:26

Ah, once again the wave king and wide stop-loss, talking smoothly, just afraid of a drop and getting cut losses haha Hey, going long in January and February? That's too early, brother. We need to see the level where no one dares to buy before deciding That's right, frequent stop-losses really give away money. That's how I lost money I remember that $80 level well. If it really drops past that, I'll set an ambush Not placing orders every day, how else to cut leeks and earn fees haha Can we really wait for a wave opportunity this time? Frequent daily battles are exhausting The $150 to $180 range probably will be tested multiple times Low-frequency trading sounds good, but how many can really resist the urge to act?

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