January 5th Morning Trading Notes

Recently, positive news has been piling up across the crypto space. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts combined with geopolitical shifts are fueling Bitcoin and Ethereum. Looking ahead to 2026, internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve, ongoing economic data releases, and repeated geopolitical risks all support the continuation of a bullish market for cryptocurrencies. The core driving forces are threefold: Trump’s influence on Federal Reserve personnel decisions, persistent weakness in the employment market, and midterm election pressures—these are likely to push the Fed to start a rate-cutting cycle in the first half of 2026, which could trigger another upward wave for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Turning to technical analysis of recent trends. The daily chart shows the price closing higher every day, currently oscillating at high levels and accumulating momentum. The hourly chart indicates a stepwise upward movement, but the latest hourly candle closed bearish, signaling a correction. On the technical indicators front, both daily and hourly RSI are above the zero line, showing strong bullish momentum. However, the RSI bars on the hourly chart are starting to shorten, indicating a short-term pause or consolidation is needed.

Key Data: The hourly RSI has surged to 71.2, approaching overbought territory, so caution is advised for a potential pullback; the daily RSI is at 63.2, still below overbought levels and could move higher. The EMA arrangement on the hourly chart looks perfect—7 > 30 > 120, a standard bullish formation, with the price running close to the EMA7. If the price breaks below this line, support should be sought at EMA30.

Trading strategy is straightforward: keep an eye on the 89200 support level; if a pullback occurs to this level, go long.

Bitcoin: Long at 89200-90700, target 93300-94300
Ethereum: Long at 3070-3110, target 3190-3230

#数字资产动态追踪 $ETH