#2026年比特币行情展望 2026 The First Lesson of the Year: Don't Become Fuel in the Market.

ETH just broke 3200, retail investors cheered and chased the rally. But looking at the candlestick chart— that long upper shadow on the 15-minute candle already told us— this is a trap set by the main players. The real entry point isn't in the clouds; you need to wait for a pullback to the 3150-3160 support zone.

Behind the linkage of $DOGE, $ETH, and $SHIB, it's not just about technicals. The phrase from Russia— "illegal but logical"— exposes the geopolitical stance. The chess game between major powers has entered a phase of rational confrontation. The interaction between energy markets and financial markets is more powerful than any single factor. The geopolitical premium on crude oil is beginning to loosen, while volatility in the crypto market is tightening. This contradiction hints at the main players reconfiguring their positions.

Data doesn't lie:

· The 4-hour volume breakout for ETH needs a retest of the pullback— don't be fooled by surface numbers
· Key support zone is locked at 3150-3180 (former resistance now serving as a defense line)
· The divergence between the Global Fear & Greed Index and BTC funding rates has reached its highest point this year

Currently, the market is under two narratives: technically, a correction is needed; geopolitically, tensions are easing. Smart capital isn't rushing to chase the move but patiently waiting for that moment when "logic and emotion are completely mismatched"— like a crocodile lurking underwater.

Here's an easy-to-understand logic: a rapid decline in an uptrend is an opportunity for holders, but the opportunity belongs only to those who have set stop-losses and placed limit orders in advance. FOMO is most deadly at this moment.

At what point do you plan to catch the rebound of this correction? Write your trading plan in the comments.