Crypto investing is actually simple if you say it plainly; it’s complicated if you try to overthink it. These five points I call the "First Principles of Truth" because they are the underlying logic distilled from every bull and bear cycle, with no room for bargaining.

**First: Price is the only true judge**

Fundamentals, technical narratives, funding backgrounds, ecological prosperity… all stories in the short term. Sounds impressive, but if the market doesn’t buy it, it’s just talk. Is the price trending upward? That means the story is being absorbed by the market. Is the price crashing down? That’s just air.

How to apply this truth? Don’t analyze projects as if you’re dating with your brain. First, look at the price structure—whether the trend is correct, whether the trading volume matches. These are the hard indicators.

**Second: 98% of coins will eventually die**

There have been tens of thousands of tokens in history. Less than 1% have survived through three full cycles? The rest are either dead or, even if alive, will sooner or later be swallowed by new tracks, new concepts, or trending MEMEs.

What does this tell us? Default to thinking all new projects are "already sentenced to death," unless you can produce strong evidence to overturn that. That’s the right mindset.

**Third: Liquidity and consensus together determine your fate**

What does it feel like without liquidity? You’re just a marionette stuck inside, unable to move. Without sustained consensus—be it user consensus, developer consensus, capital consensus, or narrative consensus—liquidity will eventually dry up.

So when evaluating a project, don’t just look at what the white paper says. Focus on whether "money and people are still flowing in." Money and talent are real gold and silver.

**Fourth: Leverage is a double-edged sword, mostly the sharp side**

Stories of liquidation and total loss in crypto are mostly due to leverage. Give you 10x leverage, and a 10% market move can wipe you out completely. It’s that simple.

Core deduction? Capital safety always comes first. How much leverage to use? Ask yourself: "Can my sleep quality withstand this multiple?" If you can’t sleep well, don’t touch that level of leverage.

**Fifth: Time is both your best friend and your fiercest enemy**

Holding truly high-quality, scarce assets (like BTC, BNB, ETH) and being patient will unleash the power of compound interest and create miracles. Conversely, if you trade frequently, chase hot topics, or add leverage? The longer you stay in, the worse you’ll fare.

In other words: your final earnings = how long you can survive × the scarcity of the assets you hold truly good × the valuation space the market is willing to give. All three factors are indispensable.

**The final blunt truth**

What’s most important for retail investors? Survive first. Only by surviving can you make money; only after making money can you think about making big money. Every major bear cycle has proven one thing: preserving your principal is victory. Keeping your principal gives you the chips to turn the game around. The rest, let time and the market teach you.