The global commodities market has experienced a series of noteworthy changes at the beginning of the new year. These trends reflect pressures on energy supply and also indicate potential volatility in oil and gas prices in the coming period.

**New Developments in Energy Supply**

South Africa has decided to lower gasoline and diesel prices starting January 7, as a direct response to domestic inflation pressures. Meanwhile, Russia, under international sanctions, has been forced to rely on a single icebreaker to export LNG, clearly facing difficulties. India’s coal mine output in December reached 19.48 million tons, a 5.75% year-on-year increase, with strong momentum in capacity expansion.

OPEC+ chose to pause production increases in the first quarter. Although the meeting did not discuss Venezuela, this decision itself signals market supply management. Data disclosed by Ukraine’s Ministry of Energy is more dramatic—since January, Ukraine’s electricity imports from the EU have surged from 2,150 MW to 2,450 MW, raising concerns about declining energy self-sufficiency.

**Geopolitical Game**

India has become a key player in recent energy politics. The U.S. claims that if India does not cooperate on Russian oil issues, tariffs will be increased. Subsequently, the Indian government has required refiners to disclose weekly purchases of Russian and U.S. oil, implying forced transparency that is expected to reduce Russian oil imports below 1 million barrels per day.

Venezuela’s situation is even more complex. The U.S. government has explicitly stated the need to fully access Venezuela’s oil and other resources, even threatening a second strike if regulations are not followed. Meanwhile, it demands U.S. oil companies invest in Venezuela. The reality is that restoring Venezuela’s oil industry could cost hundreds of billions of dollars and take years. Westpac Bank forecasts its crude oil production could rebound significantly to mid-2000s levels, while Goldman Sachs believes future oil output may increase but with downside risks to prices. A former Chevron executive plans to raise $2 billion to bet on Venezuela’s oil industry. Ironically, Venezuela’s state oil company has already begun cutting crude production, as ongoing U.S. oil sanctions have reduced exports to zero.

**Overall Commodities Outlook**

Tightening supply and risk appetite are jointly pushing copper prices toward record highs, reflecting market optimism about economic prospects. Data from Indonesia’s Statistics Bureau shows coal exports from January to November totaled 354.64 million tons, and exports of crude and refined palm oil reached 20.85 million tons, indicating stable capacity among traditional commodity exporters.

Overall, the energy market at the start of 2026 faces combined pressures from supply constraints, geopolitical risks, and demand-side uncertainties. Monitoring these changes and their impact on commodity prices, especially the transmission effects on oil and gas prices, will be a key focus for investors moving forward.