Bitcoin has rebounded to 93,000, just hitting the midline of the channel. There are about ten days until January 15th, and during this period, there are basically two main scenarios.

First, the optimistic outlook: if the price can effectively break through the midline in the next couple of days, it could rebound around January 15th back to the annual line. The key variable is MSTR—if it is removed from the index on the 15th, Bitcoin is likely to turn downward, dropping below 80,000; otherwise, it will continue to push higher.

Now, the pessimistic scenario: until January 15th, the price remains oscillating near the midline, stuck at the high point of December 9th. This also depends on MSTR’s fate—if it is removed, the price will fall below 80,000; if retained, it will continue to rebound toward the annual line.

In simple terms, MSTR’s opening tonight could give us some clues. If it confirms a rebound, the optimistic scenario is basically assured; if it continues to decline, the probability of the pessimistic scenario increases significantly.

From a technical perspective, MSTR’s daily RSI has already shown a bullish divergence, so a short-term rebound is quite likely. Bitcoin is also steadily rising above the 5-day moving average. With this combination, the bullish scenario has a higher chance. The next step depends on how the market will develop.