Recently, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled the possibility of further interest rate hikes, which indeed caused quite a stir in the crypto circle. Japan's central bank just raised interest rates to 0.75% last year, hitting a 30-year high, and now plans to continue tightening. The underlying logic is quite understandable—core inflation has surged to 3%, food and energy costs are rising, and the yen is under significant depreciation pressure. Not raising rates would be hard to sustain.

The problem is, this is not good news for the global crypto market. Over the past few decades, Japan's ultra-low interest rate environment has created a massive arbitrage market: investors borrow大量的 cheap yen and then invest in high-yield assets like cryptocurrencies and US stocks. This liquidity has contributed significantly to the scale and trading activity of the entire crypto ecosystem. Once the rate hike cycle begins, borrowing costs will rise sharply, and large leveraged institutions will have to consider liquidating positions or selling assets to repay debts.

Historical data shows that every time the Bank of Japan has raised interest rates, BTC has experienced short-term declines of 20%-30%, with liquidity contraction effects being immediate. This cycle is just beginning to ferment, and signs of market turbulence are already emerging. The Federal Reserve has not yet taken clear action, but Japan is moving to "bleed" first, which is indeed a bad timing for holders.

But don’t be overly pessimistic. Ueda later mentioned that they will observe economic data before making further decisions, and rate hikes are not set in stone. However, this does add some uncertainty to the short-term trend. It is recommended to control risk exposure, avoid blindly piling on leverage, and hold steady in main cryptocurrencies like BTC and BNB. Macro policy fluctuations will eventually pass, and the fundamentals of assets are what support long-term value. Hopefully, the Bank of Japan will exercise caution and not turn 2026 into a "roller coaster" for the crypto market right from the start.