An interesting phenomenon is that the allocation ratio of gold among global investors is still hovering at a low level. A simple calculation shows that for every 0.01 percentage point increase in gold allocation in the US investment portfolio, the gold price could rise by 1.4%—there is still considerable room for imagination.

Looking back at the 2025 market, the increase indeed exceeded many people's expectations. At the beginning of the year, everyone predicted that the gold price by the end of the year would be around $2,795 per ounce, but the actual closing price reached $4,314, a difference of $1,519. Analyst forecast ranges varied widely, with the highest and lowest differing by $1,900, indicating significant disagreement in the market's judgment of gold prices.

The head of a major commodities team admitted that gold prices are becoming increasingly difficult to interpret—they are no longer determined solely by supply and demand but are more driven by investor sentiment. He predicts that in Q4 2026, the gold price will be around $4,200, implying a slight correction for the whole year, which is considered a relatively conservative view in the market.

However, there are also many optimistic voices. An analyst from a well-known investment bank believes that continuous central bank gold purchases are the real stabilizer. In 2026, global central banks are expected to buy about 755 tons of gold, a decrease compared to the previous two years but still a strong effort. Based on this logic, the gold price might surge to $6,000 in 2028.