2026-01-05 06:45:21

Regarding the Possibility of Short-Term Bitcoin Trends

Bitcoin has now rebounded to 93,000, reaching the midline of the channel in the chart. With about 10 days remaining until the 15th, there are two possible scenarios for Bitcoin's movement within these 10 days:

Optimistic Scenario: It effectively breaks through the midline of the channel within the next couple of days, rebounding around the 15th to near the annual moving average. If the MSTR is excluded on the 15th, Bitcoin will turn downward, dropping below 80,000. If not excluded, Bitcoin will continue to rebound upward.

Pessimistic Scenario: It oscillates near the midline of the channel before January 15th, unable to effectively break the high of December 9th. If the MSTR is excluded on the 15th, Bitcoin will turn downward, dropping below 80,000. If not excluded, it will continue to rebound, with the highest rebound near the annual moving average.

MSTR opens today evening. The next scenario mainly depends on MSTR's movement. If MSTR confirms a rebound trend, the optimistic scenario will occur. If MSTR continues to decline, the probability of the pessimistic scenario increases.

Currently, MSTR has already shown a daily RSI bullish divergence, indicating a relatively higher chance of a short-term rebound; additionally, Bitcoin is steadily rebounding along the 5-day moving average, so the probability of the optimistic scenario is relatively greater.

BTC-1,35%

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