The cryptocurrency market in 2026 will not be a one-sided trend; its complexity will far exceed expectations. Traditional static position management strategies have become ineffective and need to be dynamically adjusted based on macro event timelines.

Let's outline some key time points: January 15th, MSCI adjusts its rating of MicroStrategy; May 15th, the current Federal Reserve Chair transition (currently Haskett leads Waller by 17%, leaning towards a rate cut stance). The three major actions during Trump's first year in office are worth noting—first, continuously raising market expectations for rate cuts; second, in September, promoting the aggressive rate-cut advocate Stephen Mullan to the Federal Reserve Board (his term expires in January 2026, likely to be reappointed); third, further strengthening the US global position.

On the Ethereum front, the Glamsterdam upgrade is scheduled for June, along with the progress of the long-overlooked ETH large-scale staking ETF approval. The Las Vegas Bitcoin Conference on April 27th will also bring emotional momentum to the market.

Around late May, there will be another round of speculation around rate cut expectations—currently, the December dot plot only shows a rate cut in 2026, which is unacceptable to Trump. Data suggests that there will likely be no rate cut actions from January to April. The real policy operation window appears in June, when the market will preemptively react to the mid-term elections on November 3, 2026 (all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats, and 39 governorships are up for election).

Current trading strategy: After support around 90700 for BTC, go long; key resistance levels are 92700, 96600, and 98700. A daily divergence signals an exit. ETH can follow the same operation.