#数字资产动态追踪 Trump Fed Nominee Suspense: Will Policy Shift Change Market Rhythm?

**Macroeconomic Environment Variables**

Latest information indicates that Trump may nominate Haskett or Waller as Fed Chair within this month, with each candidate having a 39% probability. The market's focus is on Waller—who has a traditionally hawkish stance. If he succeeds, it could delay rate cuts. In the short term, this puts emotional pressure on risk assets, but remember, political decisions do not immediately translate into policy implementation. Market participants are already digesting expected changes in advance.

**Real Signals from On-Chain Data**

Recent performance of BTC spot ETFs is interesting: GBTC saw a slowdown in net outflows last night, while products like IBIT continue to accumulate—single-day net inflows reaching $210 million. This indicates institutional investors are building positions on dips.

Exchange BTC reserve data is more direct—reserves decreased by 43,000 BTC over the past week, hitting a three-month low, showing clear signs of exhausted selling pressure. Meanwhile, on the stablecoin side, USDT's market cap just broke through the $110 billion mark, indicating ample off-chain capital readiness.

**The Other Side of Trading Opportunities**

If Waller's nomination is finalized, the market may create a "false dip" to complete a shakeout. But the key point is, on-chain data shows the resilience of long-term holders—HODLers' holdings account for 76%. This ratio demonstrates strong capacity among large holders to withstand pressure.

Technically, the core support level coincides with the main cost zone of ETFs, so downside space is actually limited. History often repeats: when news breaks, initial panic spikes occur, followed by liquidity reversal and upward movement—this script played out during the 2024 Jackson Hole meeting.

$BTC