#Strategy加码BTC配置 Sideways tug-of-war, who will collapse first? $ETH's recent movement vividly demonstrates the oldest curse in the crypto world — the longer the consolidation, the more extreme the reaction.

## Technical Analysis

The price is tightly squeezed between MA5 and MA10, with both moving averages acting as ceiling pressure. MA30 supports from below, but how strong is this support? That’s the real question. Even more concerning is the trading volume — hitting ice points. The latest daily average volume is only 37,300, while MA5's average volume is 69,300, and MA10's is 104,100. It’s as if off-chain funds have collectively hit the pause button; a market with no volume, no matter how beautiful, is just an illusion.

The MACD fast line has crossed below the slow line, with the histogram turning green, indicating short-term momentum is clearly weakening. But this green bar is very short, suggesting the bears are also lacking fighting spirit — more like a technical natural correction rather than a real dump.

## On-chain signals are even more interesting

The whale that bought the dip in November is having a tough time now — 31,000 ETH bought at a high point, lost about $18 million and then sold. Where did the money go? Into stablecoins and RWA tokenized assets. This move clearly shows that big players are also waiting — waiting for what? For a rebound opportunity.

Conversely, since a certain upgrade node, the number of new on-chain addresses per day has risen to 292,000, a 110% increase week-over-week. This indicates new funds are still observing, and accumulation at the bottom hasn't stopped. The layout of key support levels shows someone is quietly taking over.

## Final judgment

The market’s patience often signals that something is brewing. Is it a significant rebound coming, or is it waiting for the final wave of capitulation? Which direction do you prefer? $BTC What signals does $SOL's movement give?

This point in time is the real test of judgment.