From extreme fear to five consecutive days of gains, the secret behind the funds driving Bitcoin past 93K

Bitcoin broke through the $93,000 level during Monday’s Asian trading session and is currently fluctuating around $92,500. This is not just a simple price increase; more importantly, it marks the potential for Bitcoin to achieve its fifth consecutive trading day of gains, setting the longest daily winning streak since early October. Meanwhile, mainstream cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum, Solana, and XRP generally rose by 0.7% to 1%, indicating a structural market rebound. Of particular note are positive signals from the capital side: spot Bitcoin ETF net inflows exceeded $470 million in a single day, reaching a two-month high. All these factors suggest the market is slowly emerging from extreme fear.

Capital Flows Shift, Institutions and Whales Increase Holdings Simultaneously

From the institutional capital perspective, the sustained net inflow into ETFs is the most direct signal. The $470 million single-day net inflow is a two-month high, indicating that institutional investors are reassessing Bitcoin’s allocation value. This is closely related to the fading of year-end effects—previously, U.S. investors engaged in tax-loss harvesting at year-end, putting pressure on the market. Now that this pressure has eased, institutions are releasing risk budgets for the new year.

Whale activity is even more noteworthy. According to recent data, the number of whale wallets holding over 1,000 BTC has shown a sharp increase, especially in recent days. Specifically:

• Galaxy Digital received 2,000 BTC (worth about $1.8 billion)
• Coinbase Institutional received 754 BTC (worth about $67.94 million)
• The daily expenditure of long-term holders has dropped to 221 BTC, one of the lowest levels recently

All these data point in the same direction: institutions and large holders are accumulating rather than distributing. The SOPR index for long-term holders is at 1.13, indicating they are still in profit-taking territory but not actively distributing, further restricting circulating supply and reducing selling pressure.

Dual Drivers: Safe-Haven Demand and Macro Outlook

In addition to capital flow improvements, two key factors are driving Bitcoin’s price increase.

First is the rising demand for safe-haven assets. Recent geopolitical uncertainties have intensified—tensions in Latin America and U.S. actions against Venezuela have heightened regional risk concerns. Against this backdrop, Bitcoin has risen alongside traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver, as markets view it as a hedge against geopolitical risks. This “safe-haven asset” narrative reinforces the rationale for institutional allocation.

Second is the improvement in macro expectations. Global debt-to-GDP ratios continue to rise, with developed countries’ fiscal deficits around 4% to 7% of GDP, a trend expected to persist at least until 2027. The only feasible solution is to issue more debt tokens to provide liquidity to the market. This suggests a potentially looser liquidity environment in the future, and as a scarce asset, Bitcoin is regaining its medium- to long-term allocation value amid expectations of high interest rates and ample liquidity.

Technical and Market Sentiment Shifts

From a technical standpoint, as long as Bitcoin remains above the 21-day exponential moving average, the short-term trend remains bullish. Currently priced at $92,660, with a 24-hour increase of 1.35% and a 7-day rise of 2.97%, this moderate but steady upward movement indicates the market is gradually digesting previous fears.

Market sentiment is also clearly shifting. The Fear & Greed Index is slowly rebounding from extreme fear (25), though still low, and this change itself is a positive signal. Moving from extreme fear to mild optimism usually indicates the market is seeking new support levels, and the current capital flow improvement provides just that support.

Key Watchpoints and Future Outlook

The current market is in a controlled consolidation phase with a stable structure, but whether it can sustain upward movement depends on several key factors:

• Will ETF inflows continue? Can the $470 million daily net inflow be maintained?
• What are the true intentions of whales? Are they continuously accumulating or just building positions temporarily?
• How strong is the technical breakout? Can Bitcoin effectively break through and hold above $93,000?
• How will macroeconomic factors evolve? Changes in oil prices, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical developments.

According to Polymarket’s forecast data, the market’s probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 in January is estimated at 38%, and reaching $95,000 at 69%. This indicates some short-term optimism but also notable uncertainty.

Summary

Bitcoin’s breakthrough above $93,000 and its fifth consecutive day of gains are driven by multiple factors: the fading of year-end selling pressure releasing risk budgets for institutions, continuous accumulation by whales strengthening upward momentum, and the combined influence of safe-haven demand and macro liquidity expectations providing medium- to long-term allocation reasons. The market is currently transitioning from extreme fear to mild optimism, with capital flow improvements serving as the most direct evidence.

However, the sustainability of this upward momentum remains to be seen. Will ETF inflows persist? Will whales continue accumulating? Will macro expectations be validated? These factors will determine whether Bitcoin can break through higher resistance levels. Currently, it is a critical window, but whether it opens depends on subsequent capital actions.