#比特币价格与估值 The end-of-year market rally indeed tests patience. Polymarket's data is highly valuable for reference—Bitcoin's probability of breaking 100,000 this year has dropped from 11% to 10%, with the expectation around 95,000 remaining unchanged, while the risk of falling below 80,000 has decreased from 24% to 18%. It seems like an improvement, but in reality, the market is re-pricing expectations.

From the trades of a few aggressive traders I follow, their pace of adding positions around the 100,000 mark has noticeably slowed down. This is not bearishness but a rational adjustment of risk appetite—liquidity weakens towards the end of the year, large-scale capital inflows decline, and from a probabilistic perspective, the difficulty of breaking through indeed increases.

The key is how to follow. If you are an aggressive trader pursuing high returns, you should now consider reducing leverage or shrinking positions because the probability support is weakening. But if you are a conservative trader, you might maintain your rhythm; their expectations are generally in the 80,000 to 95,000 range.

My strategy here is layered following—aggressive traders reduce their positions to 50% of their usual size, while conservative traders maintain their normal allocation. As the year-end sprint approaches, don’t let changing probabilities disrupt your rhythm, but also don’t ignore them. When market sentiment weakens, disciplined stop-loss is more valuable than chasing gains.