2026-01-05 00:30:19

#数字资产动态追踪 2026 marks the beginning of a new chapter, and the crypto market has entered a delicate phase. To put it nicely, this is a transition from wild growth to institutionalization; honestly, everyone is just cautiously observing.

Looking at the current Bitcoin trend, it’s bouncing between $76,000 and $88,000 without much momentum. Interestingly, various optimistic forecasts are flying around, but the funds willing to go all-in are actually decreasing — this is a classic case of "talking bullish but wallets shrinking." According to data from the predictive market, traders estimate only about a 21% chance that Bitcoin will break $150,000 in 2026. After the turbulence of 2025, everyone has learned to be smarter and is no longer blindly following the trend.

Another detail worth noting: Wall Street fund managers sold off a batch of assets at the end of 2025 for tax planning purposes, and now, entering the new fiscal year, there’s a demand for capital to flow back in. In other words, there might be some rebound opportunities in January, but it depends on the attitude of these big funds. On-chain data and macro environment signals both point to one trend — the market is gradually shifting from speculation-driven to a more rational and institutionalized state.

BTC-2,23%

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HodlTheDoor

· 01-06 20:58

Saying bullish on wallets but seeing them shrink—that's the real picture right now. I've seen through Wall Street's tax maneuvers long ago, just waiting for the rebound in January. A 21% chance to break through 150,000—honestly, it's a bit uncertain; it still depends on how the big funds move.

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FlatlineTrader

· 01-06 10:47

Watching the wallet shrink despite being optimistic on the surface, that hits hard haha --- Wall Street's recent tax maneuvers are truly brilliant, waiting for a rebound in January --- A 21% probability? It shows everyone is uncertain --- From wild growth to institutionalization, it sounds nice, but in reality, retail investors are giving up --- Fluctuating between 76k and 88k, it's really boring. When will it break 100k? --- On-chain data suggests rational institutionalization, but I feel more like everyone is doing their own thing --- The attitude of big funds determines the fate, retail investors like us should just watch the show --- 2025 is going to be intense enough, it's really not wrong to stay cautious and observe now --- Funds flowing back in, just let it flow. Thank goodness if there's no pump

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ProbablyNothing

· 01-05 00:58

Seeing the wallet shrink despite being optimistic on the surface—that's the real picture right now, haha. Wall Street folks are throwing around taxes wildly during the tax season, and now the funds are flowing back. Retail investors, let's just wait and see if we can catch the bag. A 21% chance to reach 150,000? Might as well flip a coin for honesty.

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FarmToRiches

· 01-05 00:56

15,000 on the mouth, but can't sell in hand—that's the real picture right now. By the time big funds flow back, it might be too late. There's a 21% chance I bet it will still need to be adjusted downward.

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DeFiAlchemist

· 01-05 00:47

*adjusts alchemical instruments* the liquidity dynamics here are fascinating—21% probability on 150k btc screams asymmetric risk-adjusted returns, yet the protocol's true transmutation lies in those institutional flows seeking tax-loss harvested rebounds...

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GlueGuy

· 01-05 00:36

The wallet looks bullish on the surface but is shrinking—this group of traders is really interesting. Everyone is waiting for Wall Street to take the bait; I just want to know when retail investors will get their turn. The probability of reaching 150,000 is only 21%, which shows everyone is aware of the situation, just not willing to say it out loud. This time is different from 2025; some people have really learned their lesson. Institutionalization sounds impressive, but in reality, it just means there's no money to throw around. Can it rebound in January? I’d like to see what the big funds are thinking.

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晚风Y