Why has Bitcoin been unable to rally for so long? Actually, the issue isn't a lack of reasons to rise, but rather that January is packed with variables, with institutions and large funds waiting for signals to act. Clarifying the key milestones in January makes the market logic clear.

**January 1: Structural Shift of Spot ETF**
This time isn't about short-term speculation but marks the dividing line where BTC is integrated into the traditional financial system. The capital shift from retail sentiment to institutional allocation represents a significant repositioning. Usually, positive news is digested first before a direction is chosen; don't expect a single candlestick to turn everything around.

**January 9: New Federal Reserve Chair + Unemployment Rate Double Test**
The market will focus on two things—whether the Fed signals dovishness and whether there are clear signs of economic cooling in the US. If both are dovish and data weak, risk assets are likely to rebound; if the Fed leans hawkish or data remains strong, crypto prices will be suppressed.

**January 13: CPI Data (Sentiment Watershed)**
CPI decline → expectations of rate cuts rise; CPI rebound → all risk assets come under pressure. Don't just look at crypto news; BTC's real focus is on US dollar liquidity expectations.

**January 15 and 22: Korea and Japan Central Bank Rate Decisions**
Korea's central bank influences KRW trading pair liquidity and Asian fund activity, impacting altcoin sentiment. The Bank of Japan is even more critical—the last ultra-loose global central bank. Once it shifts, yen arbitrage funds will flow back, causing short-term shocks to global risk assets.

**January 27: FOMC Meeting (Ultimate Signal)**
Whether the rate cut pace is clear and dovish guidance is in place will largely determine the market direction at the end of January. Also, pay attention to the movements of national-level crypto reserves—once confirmed, BTC will upgrade from an ordinary asset to a national-level allocation tool, which is the long-term bull market logic.

In summary: January isn't a month of emotion; it's a month for setting the direction. The current volatility is just waiting for macro answers—spot ETF positioning, CPI/FOMC liquidity expectations, and central banks' risk appetite.