2026-01-04 21:27:47

A leading research team from a major exchange recently released a specialized analysis of prediction markets, covering popular assets like Space and others. I also participated a while ago and earned a platinum level badge. Recently, seeing the market open, I decided to give it a try.

One interesting aspect of prediction markets is trading during the late stage and on low-probability events—these kinds of assets actually have financial management properties. You can imagine scenarios like "Will the Moon hit the Earth in 6 months?" It sounds absurd, but that's how the trading mechanism works.

Here's the question: Is the price of 99 yuan worth jumping in? Honestly, no. The annualized return can't beat government bonds, so it's not interesting.

What about 97 yuan? That price point is much more interesting. In comparison, the yield is more attractive, and that's a level worth paying attention to. The core of prediction markets is to find opportunities where prices are misaligned.

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FlashLoanLarry

· 01-07 03:02

99 bucks really isn't exciting; might as well lie down and collect government bond interest Government bonds beating prediction markets? It depends on the price level. At 97 bucks, I’d consider copying Wait, is this low-probability trade really gambling or is there data support? Holding the platinum title is pointless; the key is to find that mispriced gap Moon crashing into Earth... Haha, how expensive does it have to be to be interesting? 99 bucks is really an IQ tax If the price drops to 97, I won't be bored anymore. What do you all think about the cost-performance ratio?

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ImpermanentTherapist

· 01-05 22:28

That price point of 97 definitely has some value, a bit more meaningful than government bonds.

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BugBountyHunter

· 01-05 00:04

99 really isn't interesting, 97 is the real sniping point.

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MetaEggplant

· 01-04 21:57

99 yuan is not enough to watch at all; 97 is the real sniping point.

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RugResistant

· 01-04 21:55

ngl the 97 vs 99 price arbitrage thing is classic mispricing hunt, but been seeing too many prediction market exploits lately... analyzed this thoroughly, red flags detected on how they're pricing tail events tbh

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DegenWhisperer

· 01-04 21:48

That price point of 97 yuan is indeed attractive; those in the know understand that this is a signal to buy the dip.

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fork_in_the_road

· 01-04 21:45

99 bucks really isn't worth it; it's better to just relax and earn interest from government bonds.

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TokenStorm

· 01-04 21:45

At this price point of 99, it's really not worth it; it's better to just lie in government bonds and sleep, really. 97 is a different story; that's where the arbitrage opportunity really is. That's how prediction markets are—misalignment is where the money is.

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SelfCustodyBro

· 01-04 21:44

99 bucks really has no potential at all, might as well just sleep in government bonds --- I'm a bit tempted by the 97 price, but the premise is that the probability is truly underestimated --- Prediction markets are all about betting on human nature; when price mismatches occur, that's the opportunity—simple and straightforward --- The platinum level sounds good, but you need to think carefully about the trading risks of such low-probability events --- Daring to target something like the moon crashing into the earth? Haha, it’s indeed quite surreal --- The key is to find that price gap; otherwise, you're just betting on market irrationality --- I've also been following the Space strategy, but the 99-dollar price really isn't attractive --- So basically, it's just waiting for a better entry point

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OnlyUpOnly

· 01-04 21:32

Damn, what's the use of a platinum title? Still have to keep an eye on that two-dollar price difference and grind away.

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