A foreshadowing of 2026 is coming into view: Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are beginning to outline a "catch-up rally" scenario.

2025 was an unexpected downturn for cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, gold and stocks remained steady, leading to significant shifts in market capital allocation across the board. However, market analysts are pointing out that this dynamic could reverse in 2026, and signs of this are beginning to appear in on-chain indicators.

Performance Disparities Between Asset Classes: Why Cryptocurrencies Were Left Behind Now

Looking at the performance trends from early November, the disparity is clear:

• Gold: +9%
• S&P 500: +1%
• Bitcoin: approximately -20%, currently trading in the $91,000 range

Throughout 2025, the divergence became even more pronounced. Gold rose about 70% since the start of the year, and silver surged by 150%, while Bitcoin experienced about a 6% decline.

This reversal is not just a temporary phenomenon but reflects changes in the macroeconomic environment. Amid rising inflation concerns and geopolitical risks, investors increased their tilt toward traditional hedge assets. The preference for hard assets as a hedge against depreciation became the dominant theme of 2025.

On-Chain Signals Indicating a Turning Point

Interestingly, movements have already begun beneath the surface of the market.

Changes in the behavior of coin holders (large wallets) are particularly notable. In the second half of the year, the accumulation pace of whales—large wallets—slowed, while smaller wallets were net buyers. The long-term holders’ holdings, which stood at 14.8 million BTC in July, decreased to 14.3 million BTC by December but have since stabilized. This pattern is typical of the distribution phase in late-cycle markets.

Furthermore, despite active Bitcoin addresses increasing by 5.5% within 24 hours, the number of transactions decreased. This suggests a movement more related to accumulation than speculation.

Market observers interpret this phenomenon as an “early sign of capital rotation.” As precious metals markets pause and liquidity normalizes, investment funds are beginning to flow back into the crypto markets.

Why Bitcoin Is Being “Held Back” and the Scenario for a Rebound

Among Bitcoin bulls, there was initially high expectation that the deflationary pressures of 2025 would push BTC higher. However, reality proved different. After reaching $126,000 in early October, Bitcoin fell sharply and dipped below $90,000 by year-end.

Nevertheless, several analysts argue that this underperformance is not due to structural weakness but is a timing issue. An important point is that gold has led Bitcoin by about 26 weeks. Historically, in previous cycles, Bitcoin often follows the leading asset, with larger gains during the subsequent rally.

The current stagnation of Bitcoin closely resembles the consolidation phase gold experienced last summer. If liquidity conditions improve and speculative capital begins to return, Bitcoin could rebound more rapidly.

Market Predictions for 2026

The odds from prediction markets (polymarkets) vividly reflect market sentiment:

• Probability that Bitcoin will be the top-performing asset in 2026: 40%
• Probability that gold will be the top performer: 33%
• Probability that stocks will lead in performance: 25%

These odds indicate that market participants believe capital will flow back into the crypto space in 2026, with Bitcoin potentially overtaking traditional hedge assets.

If liquidity conditions ease further and macro risks accelerate, Bitcoin is likely to resume its historical role. In such a scenario, the current performance gap could amplify the magnitude of a rebound.

Is the “Disparity” an Opportunity or a Warning?

The widening gap between cryptocurrencies and traditional assets in 2025 may superficially suggest weakness in crypto. However, from a structural market perspective, this could set the stage for a powerful catch-up rally.

• Whale accumulation slowing → End of distribution phase
• Increased buying activity from small holders → Entry of retail investors
• Active addresses rising while transaction counts decline → Long-term accumulation, not speculation

When these indicators align, the scenario of capital rotation could shift from “expectation” to “reality.”

The conclusion among analysts is clear: “The scenario where cryptocurrencies close the gap and outperform traditional hedges remains very plausible.” The outlook for 2026 hints at a major move following the quiet period of 2025.

#BTC