2026-01-04 18:22:55

The US dollar has performed poorly over the past year, depreciating by nearly 10%, hitting an eight-year low. Many factors support this round of depreciation: the ongoing rate cut cycle by the Federal Reserve, uncertainties in tariff policies, and concerns over credit due to the continuous expansion of US debt. But what’s more noteworthy is the global "de-dollarization" process taking place.

The data is quite straightforward—central banks around the world are continuously selling off US dollar reserves, with the dollar’s share of global foreign exchange reserves dropping to 56%, the lowest in the past 30 years. Meanwhile, the use of the renminbi in energy trade settlements has significantly increased, reflecting subtle changes in the international payment system.

For 2026, major investment banks generally agree: the US dollar index may continue to decline by about 3 percentage points, with a target range between 92 and 100. The underlying logic is that interest rate differentials may further invert— the Federal Reserve might cut rates two more times, while Europe and Japan are considering rate hikes, which would lead to a relative depreciation of the dollar.

However, reality is always more complex. In the short term, the dollar could also rebound, and there are solid reasons for that: AI-related assets are still attracting substantial liquidity flowing into US stocks, Europe’s economic fundamentals are relatively weak, and geopolitical risks could trigger safe-haven buying if tensions escalate. In extreme cases, if US economic data surpass expectations or international situations worsen, the dollar could completely reverse its downward trend and once again become the preferred safe-haven asset.

Therefore, the dollar’s trajectory in 2026 remains uncertain—it could depreciate, rebound, or even fluctuate significantly. In this environment, cryptocurrencies like BTC are becoming more attractive as alternative assets because of their low correlation with traditional dollar assets, offering genuine risk hedging capabilities. Global asset allocation is quietly changing—are you ready to face these uncertainties?

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RumbleValidator

· 01-07 15:50

The fact that 56% of reserves are held in USD explains everything. This is the real systemic risk. However, I need to scrutinize the BTC hedging logic—low correlation does not equal true safe haven. Historically, during liquidity crunches, cryptocurrencies still plummeted. The consensus mechanism is fundamental.

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ShibaMillionairen't

· 01-07 09:57

De-dollarization has been talked about for years, and now there is finally data to support it. The 56% figure is indeed shocking. This wave of BTC is really about to take off. It feels like everyone is buying the dip and accumulating coins.

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CountdownToBroke

· 01-06 16:00

The de-dollarization trend is becoming more and more obvious, with central banks dumping the dollar. This is the real signal. Dollar reserves are at 56%... Hey, the lowest in 30 years. No one is saying it, but this is a big deal. Anyway, I’m all in on BTC. I’m not afraid of the dollar rebounding and depreciating; risk hedging is all that matters. Interest rate spreads inverted, safe-haven buying, economic data exceeding expectations... Forget it, there are too many variables. Better to hold onto crypto. With so much uncertainty in 2026, it’s still necessary to allocate some crypto assets. Traditional finance can’t handle this kind of volatility.

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GasFeeLover

· 01-05 20:55

The dollar's moat is really collapsing, with reserve holdings dropping below 56%, hitting a 30-year low. This data doesn't lie. In the long term, de-dollarization is the trend, but 2026 is really hard to predict, as AI still continues to siphon resources. This time, the crypto world has a bit of an opportunity; the logic of non-correlated asset allocation finally stands on solid ground. But don't be too optimistic. When risk aversion kicks in, the dollar quickly rebounds, and geopolitical situations are unpredictable. The main thing is to diversify. Putting all your eggs in one basket is just waiting to be lessoned.

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ThesisInvestor

· 01-04 18:53

De-dollarization sounds good in theory, but how many can actually step in? The RMB appreciating is enjoyable for now, but can it be sustained in the long term? BTC, on the other hand, is more honest, not tied to any country's politics. That's the real hedging tool. Wait, is it still a good time to buy the dip? It feels like the risk premium hasn't been fully priced in yet.

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BearWhisperGod

· 01-04 18:51

The de-dollarization process is not that simple. A single hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve can instantly invalidate all predictions.

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MEVEye

· 01-04 18:49

Demonetization is a nice way to put it, but who really has the ability to step in and take over? --- 56% is already at a historic low. Now, the central banks are starting to "sell off" dollars, feeling like they're playing a big chess game. --- Instead of guessing how the dollar will move next year, it's better to focus on your own allocations. After all, volatility is just an opportunity. --- Assets like BTC are indeed attractive; avoiding the dollar strategy and enjoying this "do-it-my-way" feeling. --- The Federal Reserve lowering interest rates again, and Europe raising rates... The logic sounds clear, but in practice, there are always surprises. 2026 might be a "Schrödinger's dollar." --- The increasing frequency of RMB in energy settlements is indeed a turning point; the global payment landscape is quietly changing.

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DecentralizedElder

· 01-04 18:49

Decoupling from the US dollar—after all these years, finally supported by data. The 56% ratio is truly outrageous, and it feels like a turning point has already arrived. BTC definitely has potential in this uncertainty, but honestly, the possibility of the dollar rebounding is also quite high. Don’t get caught up in the hype. The Federal Reserve lowering interest rates twice more? I think that’s unlikely; inflation hasn’t fully surrendered yet. The big players are quietly adjusting their positions, while ordinary people are still debating whether to hold dollars or RMB. The gap in outlooks is huge. The inverted yield curve sounds intimidating, but in reality, the US still has AI and military technology as cards. In the short term, the dollar remains strong. RMB is being used more and more in energy trade. This signal is more real than any prediction. Now, allocating some RMB assets probably isn’t a bad idea. 2026? I only care whether there will be significant volatility next year. The bigger the volatility, the more arbitrage opportunities there are. Stability is actually less interesting. The cycle of AI draining the US stock market still needs to continue. Despite the strong rhetoric about decoupling from the dollar, real liquidity is still flowing to Wall Street. Central banks are selling off US dollars, yet retail investors are still buying US bonds. That’s quite ironic. The true hedging assets should be multi-chain deployments. Relying solely on BTC makes it easy to be dragged down by traditional markets. It’s better to include stablecoins and alternative Layer assets.

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WenAirdrop

· 01-04 18:34

Decoupling from the US dollar, to be honest, should have happened a long time ago. The Federal Reserve has printed so much money and still wants to stabilize the exchange rate—dream on. This wave of BTC really has some substance; its low correlation is its advantage. Not being tied to the dollar is the only way to survive. The 56% figure looks like a countdown; next, it might be someone else's turn to take the stage. Interest rate inversion, the US stock market is still bleeding, and this month's market has been quite turbulent. Decoupling from the US dollar is in progress. Is BTC about to take off? It feels like this could be a significant opportunity. The Federal Reserve cut interest rates twice? When Europe raises rates, how can the dollar stay stable? The status of paper currency is truly shaken.

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ZKProofster

· 01-04 18:25

tbh the whole "de-dollarization" narrative keeps getting oversold... technically speaking, that 56% figure doesn't really prove anything without understanding the actual settlement layer mechanics. people conflate reserve holdings with actual payment volume and it's honestly embarrassing how often analysts miss that distinction

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