January's three major concerns for BTC: investors must closely watch these decisive moments

There’s a saying circulating in the crypto circle: In January, Bitcoin isn’t showing a trend, but waiting for an answer.

This answer doesn’t come from trading charts, but from three completely different dimensions—national-level asset allocation, global liquidity expectations, and shifts in central bank policies. As long as you understand these three aspects clearly, the overall direction for this year will be basically determined.

Suspense 1: Will the national-level crypto reserves become a reality?

Starting with the most aggressive one—there are rumors that national-level crypto reserves are about to become a reality. This is not a short-term hype, but a sign that Bitcoin is upgrading from a financial asset to a strategic reserve tool.

Once this happens, the valuation logic of BTC will change directly: no longer a game of “retail sentiment + institutional swings,” but entering a new era of “national strategic allocation.” This is the underlying logic of a long-term bull market, with influence far beyond any short-term themes.

Suspense 2: How much will macro liquidity shift?

January 1: Spot ETF officially launched

The 2024 spot ETF has already proven that once institutional funds open the door, liquidity will flow continuously. Continuing this momentum, institutional allocation will move from “attempt” to “regular” phase.

But there’s an important detail—ETFs won’t bring explosive growth, but rather a re-establishment of positioning. In the short term, a digestion phase is likely, with large funds observing subsequent macro signals during this period.

January 13: CPI data, determining the month’s sentiment

This is the real watershed in January. A cooling CPI means expectations of rate cuts will rise, leading to a broad rebound in risk assets; but if CPI rebounds, all non-US assets will come under pressure.

Bitcoin now is no longer just looking at crypto news; its price movements are entirely dependent on expectations of US dollar liquidity.

January 9 + January 15: Federal Reserve new chair + US unemployment data

The overlap of these two days is critical—will the Fed become more dovish? Is the US economy really cooling down? Once economic weakness and a dovish central bank stance are confirmed, risk assets will rebound quickly. Conversely, they will be suppressed in the long term.

Suspense 3: Will shifts in central bank policies in various countries lead to capital reflows?

January 15: Korea’s central bank interest rate decision

Don’t underestimate this decision. Korea is a hub of Asian trading volume, and liquidity in the won trading pairs directly affects the activity of Asian capital. If the Bank of Korea signals dovishness, the sentiment rebound of Asian funds will directly boost altcoins.

January 22: Bank of Japan interest rate decision

This is the last central bank still in ultra-loose monetary policy globally. Once Japan changes its policy, arbitrage capital will flow from the yen back into global risk assets. This will cause short-term shocks to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

January 27: FOMC meeting, the ultimate answer revealed

Will the Fed confirm a rate cut pace? Will it give dovish guidance? The decision on this day will essentially determine the overall direction from the end of January onward and into the longer term.

Why focus on these key dates now?

Simply put: large funds never blindly buy the dip or sell at the top. They are waiting for these macro variables to give clear signals.

• ETF is about Bitcoin’s role in traditional finance — how large will institutional allocations be?
• CPI and FOMC set the tone for global liquidity — will the US dollar truly loosen?
• Central banks’ decisions reflect risk appetite — will capital flow back into emerging assets?

The current volatility isn’t without logic; all participants are holding back, waiting for these critical data points to give the final answer.

January isn’t a month for hype; it’s a decisive month for setting the direction. Understanding these three layers of logic will tell you how to respond to the upcoming market movements.