FOC Spectacular Launch Fails to Heal the "Inner Wound" of Filecoin — In-Depth Analysis of the Sustainable Ecosystem Decline

Innovation or Marketing? FOC Actually Suppresses Old Narratives

Filecoin launched Filecoin Onchain Cloud (FOC) on November 19, 2025, promoted as “the world’s first programmable decentralized cloud.” At first glance, this modular infrastructure appears revolutionary—combining automated settlement layers, integrated APIs, verifiable storage services, and support for AI, DeFi, and Web3 applications. Strategic partners like ENS, Monad, and Safe have also anchored themselves, with testnet already active and mainnet scheduled for January 2026.

However, the fundamental question from ecosystem developers is sharper: is FOC truly an innovation, or just a rebranding of a five-year-old narrative? A key project builder in the Filecoin ecosystem, formerly a notary for DataCap Filecoin Plus, openly expressed their concerns. “It’s all old stuff. New to them, but old to us. Fleek did it first!” This statement touches a sensitive point for FOC: it’s not a disruptive technological breakthrough, but rather a rebranding of a well-known decentralized storage concept.

Fleek, founded in 2019, has already provided similar functions: helping users run IPFS nodes, offering distributed web hosting, CDN services, and mature edge computing. Meanwhile, Filecoin itself is an incentive layer for IPFS—a system that incentivizes data storage through an economic model. FOC merely modularizes existing components (storage, payments, APIs) to mimic conventional cloud services like AWS.

The value of FOC lies more in marketing strategy than technological innovation. By leveraging the momentum of AI and DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Networks), Filecoin attempts to rebrand itself. However, low technical barriers and real adoption depend on application ecosystems, not on revolutionary breakthroughs.

Filecoin’s Condition: Computing Power Falls to Historic Lows

To evaluate whether FOC can “save” Filecoin, we must face current market realities. Recent data paint a concerning picture:

• FIL Price: Currently $1.50 USD (up 2.38% in the last 24 hours), but still far from the 2021 bull market peak
• Market Cap: $1.10 billion USD, showing a significant decline from historical valuation
• Network Computing Power: Dropped to a record low of 19.999 EiB on December 11, 2025
• Total Storage Capacity: Down 10% quarter-on-quarter, below 3.0 EiB

The situation is more worrying when looking at fundamental network metrics:

Storage Providers (SP) face significant losses. Several vendors have exited the network, and total staking has decreased by 1.19 million FIL. This indicates waning participant confidence in the network’s economy.

In terms of revenue, although network costs in Q3 reached $793,000 (up 14% QoQ) and storage providers earned over $180 million in FIL rewards, this “revenue” is mostly composed of FIL tokens held through burning or staking mechanisms—not actual cash flow or user payments. Utilization rates are only 36%, paid storage is low, and DeFi adoption is limited.

Community posts claim “daily revenue of $793,000,” but actual demand grows slowly. Whale concentration is very high, and while active addresses have increased, there’s no strong organic adoption trend.

More Pragmatic Competitors: Arweave and Storj Have Shifted Models

In comparison, competitors like Arweave and Storj have moved to more pragmatic payment models. They focus on real paid transactions rather than relying on token incentives. The token economy of Filecoin—dependent on collateral and penalties—struggles to achieve sustainable price stabilization.

Ecosystem activity also shows warning signs. Messari’s Q3 2025 report notes increased efficiency after the “Golden Week” upgrade (version 27), but the exodus of Storage Providers has not been stemmed. While other DePIN projects are hot in the market, Filecoin’s market cap is only $1.74 billion—far behind infrastructure giants like Solana or Ethereum.

The price rebound of FIL in early November (which doubled in value) was largely driven by hype around “AI storage,” but this is only short-term speculation. Prices fell again at the end of November.

FOC Won’t Save Filecoin: Marketing Strategy vs. Revenue Reality

The FOC launch does boost short-term sentiment. Some posts on X (formerly Twitter) state “Is FIL saved? FOC sparks onchain storage revolution,” with predictions of network value increase. But the reality is more complex.

The modular design of FOC may appeal to developers, especially those interested in integrating AI agents. However, adoption requires real applications to drive it. Currently, the FOC testnet only has official demos. Partnerships like ENS integration feel more like proof of concept than large-scale adoption.

Provider storage losses and low computing power will not turn around overnight with FOC. Without significant paid users, FIL inflation pressure will only worsen.

A deeper issue is the “income desert” across the Web3 ecosystem. In 2025, the crypto market shifted toward pragmatism: AI and DePIN are expected to prove ROI (return on investment). While storage utilization of Filecoin has increased, it remains far below centralized cloud services (AWS utilization over 80%).

FOC emphasizes “verifiable cloud,” but if it cannot translate into onchain paid transactions—such as storage for DeFi or datasets for AI—it’s just a “hollow narrative bubble.”

F3 and USDFC: Products Demonstrate Slow Ecosystem Adoption

Two previous products tell the same story:

Filecoin Fast Finality (F3) launched on April 29, 2025, but has yet to see widespread integration. Transfer speeds across various exchanges remain slow, indicating mainstream applications have not recognized its advantages. This strongly suggests that technical innovation in Filecoin has not translated into practical value for users.

USDFC, a stablecoin backed by FIL and launched by Secured Finance in May 2025, has only $300,000 in circulating supply after half a year. This figure is silent, reflecting almost no demand and minimal investor confidence in Filecoin-based products.

Both cases show a clear pattern: the Filecoin ecosystem struggles to convert technical innovation into real adoption.

Conclusion: Revenue Narrative, Not Technical Narrative

FOC is a “self-rescue” effort for Filecoin—wrapping the vision of decentralized storage in hopes of reviving the ecosystem. But history with Fleek proves that repeating “old stuff” is hard to beat against market realities.

The fundamental problem with FIL is the lack of revenue and slow adoption. The “collapse” of Web3 turns technical hype into empty talk.

In the next bull market, investors will chase projects with real cash flow—like DePIN with scalable paid applications. If FOC does not experience a surge in application adoption, it will only be short-term sentiment.

Filecoin needs to pivot: from “storage narrative” to “revenue narrative.” Without that, FOC will not save FIL—only prolong the downturn before mainnet 2026.

For now, it’s only the project team’s self-satisfaction. Widespread usage and adoption remain very limited—and that is what truly matters.