Ethereum at the $3120 level is no longer just a simple number. Saying it is the front line of battle between bulls and bears is not an exaggeration — every time it hits this point, it's a process of recalculating the balance of power.

From a technical perspective, this position is critical because various indicators converge signals here. Ethereum's 20-day, 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, during this consolidation phase until the end of 2025, are almost tangled together. The $2950 to $3100 range is where different cycle costs converge, also indicating that the market hasn't decided which way to go. When the price swings within the cluster of moving averages, the direction is ambiguous; whoever gains a slight advantage can push the trend out into a clear breakout.

The Bollinger Bands are in the same state. During consolidation, the upper and lower bands tighten, and the price wobbles around the middle band, with volatility compressed to the lowest levels. This is the "calm before the storm" — once a direction is chosen, whether upward or downward, it can trigger a strong trend. Therefore, $3120 has become the most important window to observe the subsequent market movement.

The current question is, how to break this stalemate? Looking at spot prices alone isn't enough; we need to see the true sentiment in the derivatives market. Futures and contracts have long been amplifiers of market trends, and the flow of funds between spot and derivatives often reveals the next real move in advance.