Thanksgiving Week Rally: Does This Market Anomaly Really Deliver?

What the Numbers Tell Us About the Stock Market During Holiday Week

Investors often wonder if certain market patterns hold true year after year. When it comes to the Thanksgiving week stock market performance, the historical data suggests something interesting: this shorter trading week tends to punch above its weight compared to full-year results.

Looking back at the past decade, a clear trend emerges. Out of 10 years analyzed, the stock market—measured by the S&P 500 index—performed better than expected during Thanksgiving week in seven instances. This outperformance was measured relative to what one would anticipate if returns were distributed evenly across all 52 trading weeks of the year.

Breaking Down a Decade of Data

The data provides fascinating contrasts across different market conditions.

Strong Performer Years: In 2019, 2016, and 2017, Thanksgiving week substantially outperformed expectations relative to annual gains. The S&P 500 recorded full-year rallies of 28.9%, 9.5%, and 19.4% respectively, with Thanksgiving week trading showing surprising strength during these periods.

Crisis and Turnaround Years: The Nasdaq Composite gained 43.6% in 2020 despite pandemic disruptions, yet Thanksgiving week still managed to deliver outsized returns. Similarly, 2022 presented a puzzle: despite the S&P 500 dropping 19.4% for the full year, Thanksgiving week rallied significantly better than the week-by-week average would suggest.

Disappointment Cases: Not every year followed the pattern. In 2021, despite robust annual gains (the S&P 500 rose 26.9%), Thanksgiving week underperformed. That year’s market choppiness in late November foreshadowed the broader decline that would dominate 2022.

Neutral Territory: 2015 presented a near-flat year for the S&P 500 (down just 0.7%), where Thanksgiving week performance aligned roughly with expectations.

The Thanksgiving Week Advantage

To put this in perspective: if a year generates a 20% stock market return, statistically one would expect Thanksgiving week alone to deliver roughly 0.38% (20% divided by 52 weeks). Yet the historical record shows that in most years, Thanksgiving week consistently outpaced this pro-rata expectation.

This phenomenon appears across both major indices. The Nasdaq Composite showed similar patterns, though with occasional variations reflecting its concentration of technology stocks.

Looking Ahead: What This Means for 2025

As we enter Thanksgiving 2025, the track record is encouraging. Year-to-date performance through mid-November shows the S&P 500 up 12.3% and the Nasdaq Composite up 15.3%—both exceeding the historical long-term average of approximately 10% annually. When including dividends, total returns reach 13.6% and 16% respectively.

This solid foundation suggests Thanksgiving week could continue the historical pattern of beating expectations relative to full-year performance.

Final Takeaway

While timing the stock market remains notoriously difficult, the historical evidence shows that Thanksgiving week has consistently delivered returns better than a simple mathematical split of annual performance would predict. Whether this pattern holds in 2025 remains to be seen, but seven out of the past 10 years tilted decidedly positive—a ratio worth noting for those watching market trends.