2026 Market Outlook: Leading Banks Divided on Crypto, Metals, and Equities — Here's What They're Betting On

The financial markets are bracing for 2026 with a mix of optimism and caution. After a volatile 2025, major institutions are painting divergent pictures of where assets could head next year — and not everyone agrees on the winners and losers.

Cryptocurrency Markets: Bitcoin and Ethereum Diverge on Cycle Theory

Bitcoin (BTC) stands at $91.24K with a historical peak of $126.08K, yet the outlook remains polarized. While Bernstein projects Bitcoin could eventually reach $200,000 by 2027 on the back of what it describes as an elongated bull cycle, Standard Chartered and Bernstein both forecast $150,000 for 2026. The catch? Standard Chartered expects corporate bitcoin treasury purchases to slow, though ETF inflows should offset the decline. Morgan Stanley strikes a contrarian note, warning that the traditional four-year cycle still holds and the bull market may be nearing exhaustion.

Ethereum (ETH), currently trading at $3.14K, faces comparable uncertainty. Institutions are broadly constructive on Ethereum’s longer-term prospects, particularly given the massive potential of tokenization. JPMorgan underscores how blockchain infrastructure, especially Ethereum’s network, will be central to reshaping asset classes. Tom Lee, Chairman of BitMain, is even more aggressive — he calls 2025 the bottom for Ethereum and forecasts ETH could surge to $20,000 in 2026 as the tokenization wave takes shape.

Traditional Assets Show Mixed Signals

Gold prices delivered a stunning 60% gain in 2025 — the best year since 1979. For 2026, the World Gold Council anticipates further upside of 5%–15%, with potential for 15%–30% gains in extreme scenarios involving aggressive Fed rate cuts and a global slowdown. Goldman Sachs targets $4,900/oz, while Bank of America is more bullish at $5,000/oz, citing persistent support from fiscal deficits and central bank demand.

Silver has outpaced gold, with the Silver Institute warning of a structural supply deficit that’s unlikely to resolve soon. UBS raised its 2026 target to $58–60/oz (potentially $65/oz), and Bank of America echoes that $65/oz is achievable. Industrial demand remains robust, while investment inflows continue.

Nasdaq 100 gained 22% in 2025, riding the AI wave. Analysts expect continued strength in 2026, with JPMorgan projecting the S&P 500 could reach 7,500, while Deutsche Bank is more bullish at 8,000. Applied to Nasdaq 100 valuations, the index could surpass 27,000 points — supported by sustained capex from hyperscale data center operators like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta in AI infrastructure.

Foreign Exchange: U.S. Dollar Under Pressure

EUR/USD surged 13% in 2025, the largest annual gain in eight years. For 2026, most banks expect further appreciation toward 1.20–1.22, with divergent monetary policies (Fed easing vs. ECB steadiness) providing support. However, Morgan Stanley warns of a potential pullback in H2 2026 if the U.S. economy outperforms Europe, forecasting the pair could first hit 1.23 before retreating to 1.16.

USD/JPY remains deeply divided among forecasters. JPMorgan is bullish on 164 by year-end 2026, arguing that Bank of Japan rate hike expectations are already priced in. Nomura counters that narrowing rate differentials will unwind yen carry trades, potentially sending USD/JPY down to 140 — a dramatic 15% swing depending on which thesis prevails.

Energy Markets: Oversupply Clouds 2026

Crude oil tumbled nearly 20% in 2025 as OPEC+ boosted output and U.S. production climbed. Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan both see downside risks for 2026, with WTI averaging $52–54/barrel and Brent around $56–58/barrel if supply surpluses persist. The consensus leans bearish unless geopolitical disruptions reignite demand.

The Bottom Line

2026 shapes up as a year of stark institutional divergence. Crypto bulls see tokenization and ETF flows as transformative, while skeptics warn of cycle exhaustion. Traditional assets like gold and silver enjoy support from monetary conditions, yet energy markets look oversupplied. The wildcard remains macro factors — if the U.S. economy stumbles or geopolitical tensions spike, these forecasts could shift dramatically.