Bitcoin Could Break Through $100K as Massive Options Event Reshapes Market Dynamics

The Setup: 300,000 Bitcoin Contracts Worth $23.7B Hit Expiry Friday

A major options expiry event is scheduled to shake up Bitcoin’s market structure this week. With 300,000 BTC option contracts totaling $23.7 billion in notional value on the line—representing over half of Deribit’s open interest—traders are bracing for potential price movement. The critical threshold sits at $95,000, known in options trading as the “max pain” level where the bulk of contracts would expire worthless.

QCP Capital’s latest analysis suggests this expiry could be the catalyst Bitcoin needs. According to the firm, cryptocurrency typically experiences 5-7% price swings during year-end periods, especially when large options expirations occur. The key question: will December’s massive 85,000 put positions get rolled forward, liquidated, or restructured? The answer will likely determine Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory.

Why Bitcoin Has Been Stuck (And Why It Might Not Stay There)

Currently trading around $91.57K, Bitcoin has been range-bound between $85,000 and $90,000, frustrating investors waiting for the next major move. The stagnation reflects what QCP Capital previously described as a “price cap”—essentially, the options market structure has kept Bitcoin compressed, preventing explosive upside momentum.

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe framed this consolidation as a “waiting game,” noting that equity markets may need to peak first before capital flows back into digital assets. Meanwhile, traditional assets like gold and silver are hitting all-time highs, with gold reaching $4,500 per ounce. Some commentators warn that the rallies in silver, palladium, and platinum could represent an unsustainable squeeze, potentially reversing course and redirecting capital toward Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Post-Expiry Could Unlock $100K Rally

What happens after Friday’s options expiry matters significantly. QCP Capital suggested that the event could “clarify market positioning” and potentially shift Bitcoin’s price structure upward. Executive David Eng previously characterized the options expiry as a restrictive force—once it passes, this constraint could be lifted, opening the door toward an initial $100,000 target.

The pattern is familiar: options expirations often suppress volatility by design, creating compressed price ranges. Once the contracts settle, that artificial lid comes off, and price discovery resumes with renewed energy. With a $23.7 billion expiry looming, the unwind could be significant enough to propel Bitcoin toward psychologically important resistance levels.

The Takeaway

The next 48 hours will be critical. Bitcoin’s inability to break decisively higher has tested patience, but the approaching options expiry offers a potential turning point. Whether the $95,000 max pain level holds or breaks will signal whether buyers are ready to chase $100,000, or if consolidation continues. Either way, this event could be the catalyst that reshapes Bitcoin’s structure heading into 2026.