#美联储降息 Recently, I saw two macro analysts with opposing views, which is quite interesting. One says that in the short term, Bitcoin is bearish (unless there is nuclear-level money printing, then it would tighten), while the other argues that Bitcoin should rise under a loose liquidity environment. On the surface, their expectations are divergent, but fundamentally, it reflects differing interpretations of the Federal Reserve's rate cut pace.

My judgment is as follows: The "nuclear-level money printing" threshold mentioned by Luke Gromen is indeed very high, and I haven't seen such a possibility yet. However, the signals pointed out by Delphi—such as the new high in global M2 and continuous central bank gold purchases—are more worth paying attention to. This indicates that the trend of currency devaluation is continuing, only the speed and intensity are in question.

Regarding trading strategies, my recent adjustments are as follows: For those skilled traders who insist on betting on liquidity easing, I will maintain smaller positions and follow up continuously, but with stricter stop-loss settings. I am also paying attention to traders who allocate assets in gold and AI-related sectors—changes in Tether's balance sheet are actually a very good reference indicator, as this company's choices often reflect the true expectations of institutions.

In an era of divergence in liquidity policies, a pure "10-to-1" mentality won't produce any results. You need to learn how to switch positions among traders with different styles according to your risk preferences. This is the right way to reduce the risk of expectation gaps.