The first cut of the New Year! Who is secretly harvesting your "red envelope"? Understand these 4 signals to avoid it!

Happy New Year, sisters! The Qinglan Crypto Classroom has started, I am Sister Qinglan!

Just after New Year’s Day, are you like me, hoping for a “big harvest” in your wallet in the new year? But have you noticed that despite all the positive news—Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, accelerated cryptocurrency applications… our Bitcoin and Ethereum are actually experiencing net outflows of funds?

If you only look at candlestick charts and listen to news, the “New Year red envelopes” you just put in your pocket might quietly shrink by more than half in the blink of an eye!

Today, Sister Qinglan will help you clear the fog and see who is really “pulling strings” behind the first move of the year. We not only want to avoid pitfalls but also learn to “stew” our wealth steadily amidst ups and downs, just like making soup!

1. ETF Funds “Flowing Brightly and Secretly”: The Big Players’ Rebalancing Game, Don’t Take It Seriously Data doesn’t lie: At the start of the new year, Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $348 million in a single day, Ethereum ETF also flowed out $72.05 million, even giants like BlackRock are selling.

On the surface, it looks bearish, but behind it is a “expectation difference harvesting.”

Institutions are not celebrating the Spring Festival. They take advantage of the holiday’s light trading and retail investors’ relaxed vigilance to do two things:

Lock in profits: After such a rise, taking profits is the way to go.

Create panic: Use large outflows to scare the market, making some inexperienced sisters think “the bull market is over, run!”

But are they really running? No. Coinbase is still shouting “Crypto applications accelerating in 2026,” which is like hitting the price down while giving you a candy. Institutions are playing “building the bridge openly, crossing secretly”—quietly shifting profit-taking funds from mainstream coins to more promising directions.

Your misconception: Seeing outflows and then selling, only to see prices rise; only listening to good news and chasing high, then getting trapped.

Sister Qinglan gives you tips:

Hold your long-term positions (Bitcoin, Ethereum) steady, don’t move. As long as the fundamentals haven’t changed, ignore short-term fluctuations.

Don’t rush to chase short-term funds. Reduce positions on assets with excessive gains, keep cash, and wait for the market to stabilize or for a false kill opportunity, then enter gradually. This is the prudent way of “long-term foundation + swing trading for extra gains.”

2. Altcoins “Hidden Currents”: Institutions Have Quietly Changed Battlefields While Bitcoin and Ethereum funds are flowing out, another signal has appeared: ETFs for Solana and XRP are being bought by big funds! Franklin Templeton’s XRP ETF holdings have doubled in market value, and Solana ETF assets have also broken through $950 million.

This is clearly a “rotation of assets”! Institutions know that the short-term explosive power of mainstream coins is weakening, so they take profits and shift to more narrative-driven, relatively lower-position altcoins. When market enthusiasm heats up, combined with news-driven pumps, another round of perfect harvesting begins.

Your misconception: Only watch Bitcoin’s rise and fall, chase altcoins after they rise, ending up at the top; or completely ignore capital flows, missing swing opportunities.

Sister Qinglan gives you tips:

Keep your main positions in mainstream coins for the long term.

For short-term trading, focus on altcoins with institutional inflows and positive expectations (like SOL, XRP). But remember: altcoins are volatile, trade lightly, stagger entries, and take profits quickly. Never be greedy or stubborn.

3. Macro Policies “Ice and Fire”: Don’t Be Led by the Nose by News The macro scene is like a roller coaster:

On one side, Moody’s predicts that the Federal Reserve may aggressively cut rates three times in the first half of 2026 (bullish).

On the other side, market data shows that rates are likely to remain unchanged in January and March (realistic).

At the same time, many countries are advancing crypto legalization, with Iran even accepting cryptocurrency payments.

This is a typical “expectation difference game.” Rate cut predictions may just be a “smoke screen” to boost market sentiment by institutions; when the actual rate cuts happen, it might be “good news exhausted.” Regulatory legalization is a long-term positive, but in the short term, it’s often used as a cover for dumping.

Your misconception: Hearing about rate cuts and thinking the bull market is confirmed, going all in; mistaking long-term positives for short-term explosive signals, only to be repeatedly shaken out.

Sister Qinglan gives you tips:

Look at the industry’s future with a long-term perspective, don’t be disturbed by short-term noise.

Use expectations differences for short-term high and low trading, but set proper stop-loss and take-profit levels. Don’t be greedy or fearful. Remember: policies are the foundation, but not a guarantee of short-term surges.

4. Candlestick Charts Are “Lying”: Bulls and Bears Tug of War, Calm Wins Technical analysis is very interesting:

Daily and 1-hour trends are weak downward.

But the 4-hour chart shows a strong upward bias. Price is stuck around $88,000, with the $90,000 level just within reach.

This is exactly a microcosm of the bulls and bears psychological game: The weak trend indicates bears are still applying pressure, possibly trying to dump to absorb supply; a strong rebound shows bulls are also gathering strength, aiming to break through. Many sisters are wavering here—rising makes them think the bull market is returning, falling makes them think it’s about to crash.

Your misconception: Being confused by short-cycle fluctuations, trading frequently, losing all fees, and making impulsive decisions at key points.

Sister Qinglan gives you tips:

Look at the big trend. Before the daily chart stabilizes, treat rebounds as “dead cat bounces.”

If you want to try short-term gains, do so with small positions at key support levels (like around $87,000), and always set stop-loss.

The safest point to add positions is after a volume breakout above $90,000 and stabilization. Until then, hold cash and be patient.

Summary: Starting 2026, do this to protect your red envelopes and steadily grow your wealth. See through capital flows: ETF outflows don’t mean the bull market is over; it may be institutions rebalancing. Keep your long-term core holdings steady.

Follow smart money: Pay attention to capital flows into altcoins, small positions, quick in and out.

Rationally view macro trends: Long-term positives ≠ short-term surges. Use expectation differences, but don’t blindly trust news.

Respect technical analysis: Combine multiple timeframes to see the trend, don’t rush at key levels, wait for clear signals.

The crypto world is like a martial arts arena—deep waters and raging waves. Don’t just focus on how much others are earning; think more about how to avoid pitfalls and survive longer. In 2026, let’s use patience and strategy to steadily stew our wealth!

I am Sister Qinglan, here to help you navigate the bull and bear markets, earning within your cognition clearly. See you next time!