Lighter Airdrop: What to Expect?

Compilation: Plain Language Blockchain

According to Polymarket data, the largest unissued perpetual contract DEX—Lighter—is expected to launch its Token on December 29. Although its team has not publicly confirmed the exact date of TGE (Token Generation Event), Polymarket shows a high probability of 73% for an airdrop on December 29, which may come from insider bets.

Additionally, Lighter’s user interface recently added an Airdrop Signup Form, which will expire on December 26. Lighter founder Vladimir Novakovski and his spouse have hinted that the TGE will take place during the holiday season, and recently replaced his X (formerly Twitter) profile picture with the image below:

(Profile picture of Lighter CEO Vladimir Novakovski)

Considering these factors, I believe Lighter is very likely to launch its Token LIT in the coming days (most likely December 29).

Why is Lighter so hot?

If you’ve been active in the crypto community (CT) these days, your timeline has probably been flooded with posts about Lighter and its TGE.

I think the reasons are as follows:

• Lighter is the first perpetual contract DEX targeting retail traders that offers zero fees, charging only market makers and high-volume traders, which attracts many traders.
• Similar to Hyperliquid, Lighter promises a massive airdrop (25% of total Token supply will be airdropped at TGE) and has built a very strong community.
• Its team has raised $68 million from top-tier VCs like Founders Fund and Robinhood at a $1.5 billion valuation.
• The project has strong support from the Ethereum community because the platform is built on an Ethereum L2 with verifiable order books and customizable mechanisms.

This could be the largest airdrop since Hyperliquid, and the market’s expectations are very high. As of the forecast, its Token LIT is trading pre-market with a FDV (Fully Diluted Valuation) of $3.5 billion, which corresponds to about $900 million in total airdrop allocation (25% of supply).

How is the valuation predicted on TGE day?

As mentioned earlier, although it’s quite possible, the launch date of Lighter on December 29 has not been fully confirmed. Still, I want to share my thoughts on TGE.

Additionally, I appreciate that the Lighter team stated a few months ago that the TGE would happen in 2025. It now seems they intend to keep their promise, whereas many other projects keep delaying their token launches.

On the other hand, the current market situation is very poor. Even new tokens like MON (Monad) perform poorly; a month after TGE, MON’s price has already fallen below its ICO price.

Therefore, I suspect that the FDV of Lighter tokens will mostly fall within the $2 billion to $3.5 billion range, and there will definitely be excitement within the first 24 hours after TGE. Ultimately, if trading volume doesn’t surge significantly post-TGE and Bitcoin performs reasonably well, LIT could rise in the days following.

Regarding Lighter points, here is the expected airdrop limit based on your points (this valuation table is from October 3):

(Screenshot of Trevor Flipper’s post from October 3)

Most people in the crypto community (CT) seem to have higher valuation expectations for Lighter TGE than I do, but I believe there will be significant sell pressure from airdrop “sharks” within the first 24 hours, and unfortunately, the market environment isn’t ideal.

So, even if the FDV is between $2 billion and $3.5 billion, this airdrop will still be a global event for early traders. If the FDV ends up higher, that’s even better.

Unissued perpetual contract DEXs remain one of the most promising airdrop opportunities today.

If you’ve participated in lighter discussions, congratulations—get ready for your airdrop, because you deserve it.

Article link: https://www.hellobtc.com/kp/du/12/6176.html

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