## The Valuation Dilemma of D-Wave Quantum: Many Customers but Little Revenue, Can the Stock Price Break Through the Ceiling?

**D-Wave Quantum**[(NYSE: QBTS)](/market-activity/stocks/qbts) Since going public via SPAC merger in August 2022, the stock price has experienced rollercoaster movements. It opened at $10 and fell below $1 in 2023, now hovering around $12. This quantum computing service provider seems to have a shiny "report card"—locking in over 100 clients, including industry giants like Deloitte, Mastercard, and Volkswagen. But beneath this glossy exterior lies an awkward reality: most of these clients have yet to contribute substantial revenue to D-Wave.

## Why is there a severe mismatch between D-Wave's customer count and revenue?

The key issue lies in D-Wave's business model. These top-tier clients mainly conduct pilot and research projects at low or no cost through its cloud platform Leap, rather than fully applying quantum annealing technology to their core business processes. This means D-Wave's main revenue still comes from selling Advantage quantum systems—such transactions are infrequent, long-cycle, and results are hard to predict.

Financial data reveal this dilemma. In 2024, D-Wave's annual revenue remains at $88 million, unchanged from 2023. This stagnation reflects the instability of hardware sales. However, the company expects revenue to surge to $254 million in 2025 (note: the table shows $254 million), driven mainly by the launch of the new generation Advantage2 system—this product is 25,000 times faster at solving 3D lattice problems and consumes less energy.

| Metric | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025(Estimate) |
|------|--------|--------|--------|--------------|
| **Revenue** | $7.2M | $8.8M | $8.8M | $25.4M |
| **Adjusted EBITDA** | -$48M | -$54.3M | -$56M | -$70.6M |
| **Net Profit** | -$51.5M | -$82.7M | -$143.9M | -$338.9M |

## Burning cash faster, profits still a distant dream

The table data exposes D-Wave's biggest weakness: losses are widening. In 2025, adjusted EBITDA is expected to worsen to -$70.6 million, with net losses potentially surpassing $338 million. This reflects the company's huge investments in new product development and market expansion.

Analysts forecast that by 2027, D-Wave's revenue could reach $75 million, with adjusted EBITDA improving to -$64 million, and net losses narrowing to $115 million. Growth drivers include expansion of the Leap platform, converting pilot projects into high-value partnerships, and sales of new systems (priced between $20 million and $40 million per unit).

## Market outlook optimistic, but valuation has hit the ceiling

From an industry perspective, the outlook is indeed bright. According to Dataintelo, the quantum annealing market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 15.7% from 2023 to 2032. The broader quantum computing market is growing even faster—Grand View Research projects a 20.5% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, mainly driven by accelerated adoption by mainstream enterprises.

But all these rosy prospects are undermined by valuation issues. Based on enterprise value, D-Wave's current PE ratio is as high as 132x (relative to projected 2027 revenue). In comparison, IonQ[(NYSE: IONQ)] expects to reach $312 million in revenue in 2027, with a valuation multiple of only 55x. This means that even if D-Wave's stock halves, it still appears expensive compared to its peers.

## Wait and see or take action?

D-Wave's technological approach is unique—using superconducting flux qubits that allow current to flow in two directions simultaneously to achieve quantum states, differentiating it from IonQ's ion trap technology and IBM's single-electron rotation scheme. However, these technical advantages have not yet been fully reflected in financial performance.

From the current standpoint, D-Wave is a "story stock." It has ample growth potential and a genuine customer base, but profitability remains out of reach. Until valuations are significantly adjusted, cautious waiting is the wiser choice.