1. Market Overview

According to the latest candlestick data, the current ETH price is 2906.12, based on the closing price of the most recent 1-hour candlestick. Over the past 14 days, ETH's overall performance has been volatile, with the highest point appearing 14 days ago at 3327.37 and the lowest at 2775.19. Recently, the price center has gradually shifted downward, making it difficult to break through the 3000 level. In terms of trading volume, the average daily volume has significantly decreased over the past two days, dropping from tens of thousands at peak periods to 4829.9 in the most recent day, indicating increased caution among retail and institutional traders. Combined with the latest news and analyst opinions, market sentiment remains cautious, with a short-term bearish atmosphere and conservative trading behavior.

2. Technical Analysis
From the 14-day candlestick, ETH's rapid decline after breaking above 3200 to 2775.19, followed by a rebound that temporarily surpassed 3000, has since retreated continuously and is currently consolidating around 2900. Support levels are mainly concentrated in the previous low of 2775.19-2800, with secondary support around 2880. Resistance zones are mainly between 3000-3035, with a need to watch the previous high range (3060-3177) if broken. The hourly candlesticks in the past 48 hours show narrowing volatility, with multiple attempts to break through 2920-2950 failing to stabilize, indicating a short-term pattern of rebound resistance and continued downward movement. Hourly trading volume has not shown significant expansion, suggesting no major institutional activity in the short term.

3. News and Policy Interpretation
Based on the provided news data, there are no new policy impacts currently. Recent market fluctuations are mainly driven by external events and trader battles. Key news focuses on Ethereum options expiration, weak long positions, and ETF fund outflows. Notably, options expiration is seen as a potential turning point, coupled with large outflows from ETF IBIT and ETHE, indicating some investors are locking in profits and reducing exposure in the short to medium term. The news also mentions Ethereum's ongoing difficulty in effectively reclaiming the 3000 USD level; if it continues to be lost, it could further impact market confidence and reinforce bearish expectations. On the business data side, stablecoin B2B and P2B transactions remain positive, supporting medium to long-term value, but short-term weakness persists.

4. Analyst Opinions
Below are the analyst viewpoints (all quoted directly):
- “Click above to join the crypto channel #ETH ? (Limit order) EP: 2985-3015 TP: 2920-2860-2800 SL: 3055”
- “Click above to join the crypto channel #ETH/USDT short entry: 2988-3020 TP1: 2937.94 TP2: 2894.33 TP3: 2833.65 TP4: 2800～3060 Leverage suggestion: ~10X-60X”
- “ETH short-term short at 2928 near current market price, 100x leverage, 2% margin, place additional orders to reserve a second entry point. No early release to avoid targeted liquidation. 3% margin take profit at 2888-2800, stop loss at 2970.”
- “ETH short-term short at 2930 near current market price, 100x leverage, 2% margin, place additional orders to reserve a second entry point. No early release to avoid targeted liquidation. 3% margin take profit at 2888-2800, stop loss at 2970.”
All these opinions are bearish strategies targeting ETH in the short term, with target zones mainly between 2860-2800, and specific stop-loss levels around 2988-3055. Consistent with the current candlestick trend, multiple analysts emphasize that if ETH cannot stabilize above 3000, short-term pressure will be high, with strong selling resistance during rebounds, and the market expects further downside. Currently, the market price is close to the analysts’ short positions, with high agreement on the chart trend and no significant disagreement.

5. Trend Forecast and Trading Suggestions
Based on candlestick analysis and analyst opinions, ETH remains weak in the short term, with prices constrained by the 2950-3000 resistance zone, repeatedly testing but failing to break through. If it cannot hold above 2950, it is highly likely to continue testing the 2880-2800 support zone, increasing the risk of further decline. Conversely, if ETH unexpectedly breaks above 3000 and stabilizes, there is potential for upward testing of 3035-3055. Trading strategies can be set according to current high and low points: aggressive traders may short near 2950-2988 with targets around 2880-2800, and strict stop-loss above 3000-3020. Wait-and-see investors should wait for clear breakout signals to avoid being caught in range-bound stop-losses.

6. Risk Warning
Recent candlestick rebounds are weak, with narrowing volatility ranges, but individual candlesticks still show high-low amplitude of 10-30 USD, indicating potential for sudden fluctuations. Especially around 2900-2950, repeated battles may lead to sharp moves if large trades or major news occur. Be cautious of false breakouts during low volume periods and the downside amplification if 2900 support is lost. When prices approach 2800-2775, buying interest may increase, but a breakdown could trigger long-term stop-loss orders, further accelerating declines. Therefore, it is essential to control position sizes, strictly implement stop-losses, and guard against extreme events that could cause significant capital risks. In summary, ETH is currently in a weak oscillating pattern with a clear short-term downward tendency. Until 3000 is reclaimed successfully, maintain a cautious bearish outlook, adjust trading strategies flexibly, and closely monitor key volume and support/resistance signals.