#比特币与黄金战争 Gold has already surged to the $4500 per ounce level, faster than many analysts' long-term forecasts. But there's a problem—according to the fundamental model, the current price of gold is actually quite deviated, with short-term valuation significantly above the model's central level, indicating some bubble-like characteristics.

That said, the Federal Reserve's policies and the US economy haven't yet reached a true inflection point, so this gold bull market may still have a long way to go. However, since the price has already diverged from fundamentals, market volatility will likely increase, making precise timing difficult. Instead of fixating on a specific price target, it's better to focus on key time nodes that influence gold's movement.

The situation early next year might be somewhat pressured—if US inflation continues to rise and economic growth marginally improves, the Federal Reserve is likely to slow down rate hikes or even pause rate cuts, which would be a temporary bearish factor for gold. But looking ahead, after the new Fed chair takes office in May, if US inflation peaks and begins to decline in the second half of the year, the Fed might accelerate rate cuts again, providing new upward momentum for gold.

In simple terms, future gold prices won't be a one-way rise but will fluctuate with the Fed's policies and US economic data. The same logic applies to silver—just with a smaller market size and thinner liquidity, its price volatility could be even more intense than gold, with more extreme risks and opportunities. $BTC